NFL
NFL

NFL Efficiency Rankings - Week 9

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The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability.

The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability, which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates. If you're scratching your head wondering why a team is ranked where it is, just scroll down to the second table to see the stats of all 32 teams.

Click on the table headers to sort.

 

RANK TEAM LAST WK GWP Opp GWP O RANK D RANK
1 SD 2 0.81 0.43 1 4
2 NYG 3 0.79 0.53 2 1
3 PIT 1 0.79 0.51 4 3
4 TEN 6 0.71 0.58 5 2
5 IND 4 0.71 0.56 7 10
6 KC 5 0.68 0.51 15 7
7 GB 7 0.64 0.50 6 14
8 MIA 9 0.63 0.54 17 11
9 HOU 10 0.62 0.61 3 25
10 PHI 8 0.61 0.48 11 8
11 NE 11 0.56 0.54 8 24
12 NYJ 18 0.54 0.51 26 6
13 BAL 13 0.53 0.49 19 13
14 CHI 16 0.52 0.48 27 9
15 MIN 21 0.50 0.53 20 12
16 DAL 11 0.50 0.57 9 28
17 WAS 12 0.49 0.53 18 17
18 NO 20 0.49 0.42 14 18
19 ATL 15 0.45 0.47 12 27
20 CIN 21 0.43 0.46 22 26
21 CLE 19 0.41 0.53 25 19
22 OAK 30 0.41 0.45 16 16
23 DEN 22 0.38 0.48 10 31
24 SF 25 0.36 0.45 21 20
25 DET 27 0.36 0.55 24 22
26 JAC 31 0.35 0.59 23 30
27 TB 23 0.34 0.42 13 32
28 BUF 28 0.33 0.56 28 29
29 CAR 26 0.31 0.46 32 5
30 STL 29 0.29 0.40 30 15
31 SEA 24 0.23 0.43 29 23
32 ARI 32 0.21 0.43 31 21


And here are team efficiency stats through week 8.

 

TEAM OPASS ORUN OINT% OFUM% DPASS DRUN DINT% PENRATE
ARI 4.7 4.6 5.2 1.4 6.2 4.4 2.9 0.44
ATL 6.2 4.2 2.0 0.3 7.0 4.1 4.5 0.36
BAL 6.4 3.6 2.5 0.8 6.0 4.2 2.2 0.39
BUF 5.3 4.5 3.1 0.9 6.7 5.0 0.5 0.33
CAR 4.7 3.3 5.7 2.5 5.5 3.6 4.5 0.38
CHI 5.7 4.0 5.6 0.3 5.5 3.6 3.4 0.36
CIN 6.1 3.8 2.5 1.4 6.2 4.5 3.7 0.38
CLE 5.9 3.9 3.8 1.8 6.9 3.9 3.4 0.42
DAL 6.8 3.7 3.7 0.0 6.9 4.5 2.6 0.54
DEN 7.0 2.9 1.6 1.7 7.1 4.6 2.3 0.52
DET 5.6 3.6 3.0 0.8 6.0 4.9 3.4 0.54
GB 6.7 4.2 3.3 0.5 5.6 4.6 4.2 0.39
HOU 6.4 5.3 2.6 0.3 7.2 4.1 1.4 0.34
IND 7.0 3.7 0.7 1.0 5.8 4.9 2.6 0.35
JAC 5.9 4.2 4.9 1.0 7.9 4.4 3.1 0.37
KC 6.2 5.2 1.7 0.3 5.8 3.8 2.2 0.35
MIA 6.3 3.9 3.2 0.8 6.1 3.8 2.3 0.25
MIN 5.9 4.7 5.1 1.2 6.3 3.9 2.6 0.44
NE 6.4 4.2 1.8 0.0 6.9 3.9 3.3 0.39
NO 6.5 3.6 3.3 0.9 5.8 4.1 2.2 0.41
NYG 6.8 4.8 4.6 1.8 5.0 3.5 3.1 0.45
NYJ 5.7 4.8 1.8 1.7 5.8 3.4 2.0 0.53
OAK 6.0 4.9 3.3 0.9 5.7 4.7 1.7 0.65
PHI 6.3 4.9 1.6 0.8 5.6 4.0 4.6 0.58
PIT 7.1 4.0 3.7 1.2 6.0 2.6 3.8 0.32
SD 7.7 4.2 2.3 1.6 5.2 3.5 2.8 0.39
SF 6.0 3.9 3.6 1.1 6.6 3.6 3.0 0.56
SEA 5.0 3.6 3.0 0.0 6.4 3.9 2.2 0.46
STL 5.1 3.6 2.7 0.2 5.4 4.3 2.7 0.44
TB 6.0 4.2 1.3 0.9 6.6 5.2 6.4 0.42
TEN 6.7 4.2 2.4 1.1 5.6 4.1 4.1 0.55
WAS 6.0 4.1 2.8 1.1 6.1 4.6 2.6 0.38
Avg 6.1 4.1 3.1 1.0 6.2 4.1 3.0 0.43