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NFL Efficiency Rankings: Week 11

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One of the more perplexing things about the rankings lately is that the 7-2 Patriots have a net negative balance of offensive and defensive YPA.

NE averages 6.5 net YPA but gives up 6.8 net YPA, while their other stats are very average.

How are they winning and beating quality opponents (0.60 Opponent GWP)?

Perhaps part of the answer is consistency. Their offensive Success Rate, adjusted for opponent is 2nd in the league. They might only be getting 6.5 YPA, but if they got 6 or 7 yards on every attempt, they'd be unbeatable.

The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability, which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates. If you're scratching your head wondering why a team is ranked where it is, just scroll down to the second table to see the stats of all 32 teams.

Click on the table headers to sort.



RANK TEAM LAST WK GWP Opp GWP O RANK D RANK
1 SD 1 0.80 0.41 1 3
2 PIT 2 0.76 0.55 8 2
3 NYG 3 0.71 0.45 4 5
4 GB 5 0.70 0.51 9 8
5 PHI 6 0.69 0.48 2 6
6 MIA 10 0.68 0.59 11 12
7 TEN 4 0.64 0.59 18 1
8 BAL 9 0.62 0.54 19 13
9 KC 8 0.59 0.48 15 9
10 NYJ 11 0.59 0.53 22 7
11 IND 7 0.58 0.53 24 10
12 NE 16 0.57 0.60 7 25
13 MIN 14 0.55 0.51 14 16
14 NO 12 0.54 0.42 16 15
15 CLE 17 0.52 0.56 20 18
16 HOU 13 0.51 0.55 3 29
17 CIN 19 0.51 0.54 25 17
18 CHI 15 0.50 0.45 27 4
19 DAL 21 0.50 0.57 6 26
20 ATL 20 0.48 0.51 13 23
21 WAS 18 0.43 0.52 17 24
22 DEN 24 0.42 0.49 5 30
23 TB 23 0.41 0.41 10 31
24 OAK 22 0.40 0.45 23 14
25 SF 25 0.40 0.43 12 20
26 BUF 27 0.36 0.55 28 27
27 JAC 28 0.34 0.57 21 32
28 DET 26 0.32 0.53 26 21
29 SEA 31 0.26 0.42 29 22
30 CAR 30 0.23 0.47 32 11
31 STL 29 0.23 0.38 30 19
32 ARI 32 0.17 0.44 31 28


And here are each team's efficiency stats.

 

TEAM OPASS ORUN OINT% OFUM% DPASS DRUN DINT% PENRATE
ARI 4.9 4.2 4.3 1.1 6.9 4.3 3.0 0.41
ATL 6.2 4.0 1.5 0.2 6.9 4.2 4.6 0.33
BAL 6.5 3.8 2.3 0.8 6.0 4.0 2.6 0.38
BUF 5.4 4.4 3.0 1.2 6.5 4.7 0.7 0.31
CAR 4.4 3.6 4.8 2.4 5.8 4.1 3.8 0.41
CHI 5.8 3.8 5.0 0.2 5.5 3.5 4.0 0.42
CIN 6.0 3.7 3.1 1.3 6.1 4.3 3.3 0.36
CLE 6.1 4.2 3.1 1.9 6.6 3.9 3.2 0.39
DAL 7.1 3.6 4.0 0.0 7.1 4.3 2.5 0.51
DEN 7.2 3.2 1.4 1.5 7.2 4.4 1.8 0.48
DET 5.7 3.4 2.6 0.9 6.3 4.7 3.1 0.55
GB 6.8 4.2 3.0 0.5 5.5 4.5 4.4 0.37
HOU 6.8 5.0 2.3 0.2 7.8 4.1 1.5 0.34
IND 6.5 3.7 1.0 0.8 5.9 5.0 3.0 0.36
JAC 6.4 4.3 4.3 0.8 8.1 4.3 2.8 0.39
KC 6.3 4.8 1.5 0.6 6.0 4.0 2.1 0.39
MIA 6.5 3.8 3.7 1.3 5.9 4.0 2.1 0.27
MIN 6.3 4.5 5.4 1.1 6.2 3.7 2.7 0.41
NE 6.5 4.1 1.6 0.0 6.9 4.2 2.9 0.42
NO 6.4 3.8 3.2 0.8 5.2 4.2 2.2 0.42
NYG 7.1 4.6 4.1 1.6 5.7 3.5 3.7 0.45
NYJ 6.1 4.6 2.0 1.5 5.8 3.4 1.6 0.55
OAK 6.0 4.9 3.3 1.3 5.6 4.5 1.9 0.69
PHI 6.8 5.4 1.3 0.6 5.8 4.1 5.0 0.59
PIT 6.9 4.0 3.3 0.9 6.2 2.8 3.2 0.35
SD 8.0 4.0 2.4 1.7 5.4 3.6 2.9 0.41
SF 6.4 3.9 3.3 0.9 6.4 3.7 2.6 0.59
SEA 5.6 3.6 3.3 0.2 6.5 3.9 2.0 0.46
STL 5.1 3.7 2.4 0.2 5.9 4.2 2.5 0.51
TB 6.4 4.4 1.8 0.9 6.5 4.8 4.9 0.43
TEN 6.2 4.3 2.4 1.0 5.8 3.9 3.9 0.54
WAS 6.2 4.3 3.5 1.2 6.5 5.0 2.4 0.38
Avg 6.3 4.1 2.9 0.9 6.3 4.1 2.9 0.43