AccuScore’s resident experts make their picks for the final weekend of the regular season. We go beyond Advisor and dig into the daily line report to find teams, situations and trends to make sure the picks we give you have the best chance to win.
Oregon –16.5 at Oregon State
Oregon State’s 2010 season has been a complete disaster and it shows when you look at the numbers. When an Oregon State quarterback drops back to pass, 12 percent of those plays end up in either a sack or interception. That number is up 4.5 percent against last year when Canfield was the quarterback. Jacquizz Rodgers is averaging a full 10 yards less a game in 2010 vs. 2009 and the passing game had not made up the difference with 1000 yards less production this season vs. last. Oregon State only punted 51 times in last year’s 13-game season, but have already punted 57 times in 11 games in 2010.
AccuScore has Oregon winning the Civil War 84 percent of simulations by an average margin of 20 points. The Ducks have have either scored a touchdown or attempted a field in goal in an astounding 56 percent of their possessions this season when they are not trying to run out the clock. The math is simple, more possessions means Oregon will either score or flip the field, which is trouble for an Oregon State team that is having trouble moving the ball and putting up points.
South Carolina +5 vs. Auburn
The combined against the spread records for Auburn and South Carolina is only 10-11 this season, but the game forecast is something you should pay attention to. With Auburn vs. South Carolina, the Tigers are only winning 51 percent of simulations in the SEC Championship Game, which is far too low for a match-up of an undefeated teams vs. a three-loss team.
Turnovers are the reason this game will be close and why I like South Carolina. Auburn won the turnover battle in the first game, but during the first three quarters of that game, South Carolina had fewer turnovers and a lead on the scoreboard. I do not think South Carolina will be cavalier with the ball which is important because they win 65 percent of simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. AccuScore says the fair betting line is Auburn –1, so I will take the extra four points and take South Carolina +5 in the SEC Championship Game.
Northern Illinois -17.5 vs. Miami (OH)
The AccuScore spread for this game is -20. If you haven’t been paying attention, Northern Illinois is 10-2 and has snuck into the top 25. While this is the MAC championship game, the spread is still very large. This is because the Huskies have won their eight conference games by an average of 31.9 points! Even better omen for this pick: AccuScore is 10-1 against the spread in Northern Illinois games this season.
Florida Atlantic +4.5 vs. Troy
The computer line for this game is Troy -1 meaning this game is pretty even. Troy should be better given the fact it is on the road and still favored, but not significantly so compared to Florida Atlantic. Troy has beaten only one opponent by more than 7 points this season (@MTSU, 10/5). Home field should be the factor to keep the Owls at least close in this contest.