AccuScore’s resident experts are back to make their picks for Week 11 of the college football season. In addition to applying what we know about the teams we pick, we go beyond Advisor and dig into the daily line report to find teams, situations and trends to make sure the picks we give you have the best chance to win.
Oklahoma State –5.5 at Texas
The odds makers still think Texas has potential and can turn the season around. We think otherwise projecting Oklahoma State to win this game by 10 points. The 4.5 point line difference is signifcant trend for AccuScore and we are winning at a 56% clip when our simulation line differs from Vegas by 4 to 4.5 points. Oklahoma State has been among our best teams with ATS projections with AccuScore posting an 8-1 record in games they play. AccuScore is 3-5 ATS in games involving Texas, but that does not bother me at all because they have underachieved so greatly this season and the Oklahoma State offense is a bad match up for the Texas defense. An additional side note, AccuScore is 21-12 (64%) in projecting the ATS winner in Big XII Conference games this season.
Rice/Tulane Under 58 Points
Rice at Tulane is a matchup of two throw away football teams who have shown significant profits this year in game totals. AccuScore is 8-1 in accurately picking the over or under in Rice games and is 6-2 in the same situation with Tulane. Our simulation line projects 54 points, which is four points less then the total points line. AccuScore is 60% this season in projecting with over or under when the vegas line and our simulation line differ by 4 to 4.5 points and we are 63% in totals in Conference USA games this season.
Army +1 vs. Kent State
This game will be strength vs. strength as Army’s 8th ranked rushing attack goes up against Kent State’s top-ranked run defense. The key I see here is that Kent State has built up that impressive ranking against less than stellar competition. The best running team the Golden Flashes was Temple (44th in the nation) last week. They have faced the 99th, 101st, 119th, and 120th ranked rushing teams as well. Kent State is probably pretty stout against the run, but not truly among the very best in the country. The other weakness for the Flashes is the fact they cannot run the ball themselves ranking 113th in the country. This says to me that Army should be able to control the football, and possession in this contest. AccuScore says Army is favored in better than 59 percent of simulations. The computer has positive results with both teams for the season.
Utah -5.5 at Notre Dame
Fans believe Utah was exposed by TCU last week saying the Utes grew fat against poor competition. Well surprise, surprise Notre Dame is a bad football team. Utah has feasted all year on teams like the Irish, and that should happen again this week. AccuScore projects the Utes to win in 69 percent of simulations winning by more than 9 points on average. With the line 1.5 points less than a full touchdown and the state of Notre Dame health-wise this should be a very solid bet.