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2011 NFL Playoff Forecast - Divisional Round

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In 10,000 simulations AccuScore generated the percent chance each team won the Super Bowl after the Wild Card round. Below is a review of AccuScore’s forecast as compared to the current betting lines.  There is a somewhat surprising lack of difference between the two.  The odds (+Yes / -No) have been translated into an Odds % which is the chance that the Vegas Odds-Makers give each team to win.  The total Odds% is 111% because Vegas sportsbooks charge a vig to make a profit off betting.  If you remove the vig then you get the Odds% (No Vig).

When comparing AccuScore to the Odds% (No Vig) you see the Difference (Diff).  The Jets and Ravens had impressive wild card road wins, but with road games against the Patriots and Steelers respectively it is still a pretty long shot for them even though they may be two of the best four teams in the league.

The Seahawks beat the Saints, but they are still given less than a one percent chance of shocking the world with a Super Bowl win.  The Bears are benefiting by getting Seattle at home which is why their chances of winning the Super Bowl are higher than the odds would indicate.  The Bears may have the most value compared to the odds, but they too are still a long shot.  Atlanta definitely got the short end of the stick having to face Green Bay (6 seed) rather than Seattle (4 seed).

WIN SUPERBOWL

ODDS
(YES / NO)
ODDS %
CHANCE
ODDS%
(No Vig)
ACCUSCORE DIFF

New England Patriots

+158 / -175 37.9% 36.2% 34.1% -2.1%

Pittsburgh Steelers

+576 / -710 14.4% 13.8% 15.7% 1.9%

Atlanta Falcons

+541 / -660 15.2% 14.6% 11.8% -2.8%

Chicago Bears

+900 / -1200 9.8% 9.4% 13.6% 4.3%

Green Bay Packers

+670 / -870 12.6% 12.1% 11.1% -1.0%

Baltimore Ravens

+1225 / -1625 7.4% 7.1% 7.9% 0.8%

New York Jets

+1600 / -2400 5.8% 5.5% 4.8% -0.7%

Seattle Seahawks

+8000 / -1300 1.3% 1.3% 0.9% -0.4%