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2011 NFL Playoff Forecast - Championship Round

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In 10,000 simulations AccuScore generated the percent chance each team won the Super Bowl heading into championship Sunday. Below is a review of AccuScore’s forecast compared to the current betting lines.  There is a somewhat surprising lack of difference between the two.  The odds (+Yes / -No) have been translated into an Odds % which is the chance that the Vegas Odds-Makers give each team to win.  The total Odds% is 111% because Vegas sportsbooks charge the vig to make a profit off betting.  If you remove the vig then you get the Odds% (No Vig).

The Chicago Bears were heavy 82 percent favorites to beat Seattle, and as a result last week they led the playoff teams in positive Diff at +4.3 percentage points.  Despite their impressive win they are now winning the Super Bowl just 14.3 percent of the time, which is less than the Odds would indicate.  This is due to the fact that Green Bay has been so impressive and is actually favored on the road against Chicago.  The Packers are winning the Super Bowl at the highest probability, 34.5 percent, but even at this rate they are not winning as much as the Vegas odds indicate (35.5 percent).

The Steelers may have lost to the Jets at home in the regular season, but as the Jets showed against the Patriots, regular season does not impact playoff performance.  Pittsburgh will have safety Troy Polamalu this time around, and as a result the Steelers are given a 32.1 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.  The Jets are also given a higher chance by AccuScore than the Vegas odds indicate.

WIN SUPERBOWL ODDS
(YES / NO)
ODDS %
CHANCE
ODDS%
(No Vig)
ACCUSCORE DIFF

Green Bay Packers

+167 / -186 36.5% 35.5% 34.5% -1.0%

Pittsburgh Steelers

+203 / -227 32.2% 31.3% 32.1% 0.8%

New York Jets

+409 / -466 19.3% 18.7% 19.1% 0.4%

Chicago Bears

+563 / -662 14.8% 14.4% 14.3% -0.1%