NFL
NFL

2011 NFL Playoff Forecast

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Using 10,000 simulations, AccuScore generated the percent chance each team won the Super Bowl.   Not surprisingly the New England Patriots lead the league with a 31.6 percent chance of winning.  This is nearly 2.5 times as high as the number two team which is Pittsburgh.  The home field advantage that New England would have in a match-up with the Steelers is the key to the difference.

The Falcons lead the NFC with a 12.7 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.  Again, their home field advantage combined with a first round bye helps them lead the conference.  The Saints, despite having to play a road game to start the playoffs, are heavily favored winning nearly 80 percent of simulations at Seattle.  Even though the Saints are seeded fifth, their advantage over the Seahawks puts them in the second favored position in the NFC.

Below is a review of AccuScore’s forecast as compared to the current betting lines.  There is a somewhat surprising lack of difference between the two.  The odds (+Yes / -No) have been translated into an Odds % which is the chance that the Vegas oddsmakers give each team to win.  The total Odds% is 111% because Vegas sportsbooks charge the vig to make a profit off betting.  If you remove the vig then you get the Odds% (no vig).

When comparing AccuScore to Odds% (no vig) you see the Difference (Diff).  There are minimal differences indicating AccuScore does not have any really strong value betting recommendation in these playoffs.  The Bears have the highest value based on a +1.1 percentage point difference, but at 9.1 percent overall they are still a long-shot.  Laying money on the Seahawks is like playing the lottery.

WIN SUPERBOWL ODDS
(YES / NO)
ODDS %
CHANCE
ODDS%
(No Vig)
ACCUSCORE DIFF
New England Patriots +176   /   -196
35.4%
31.7%
31.6%
-0.2%
Pittsburgh Steelers +575   /   -708
14.5%
13.0%
13.2%
0.2%
Atlanta Falcons +590   /   -730
14.1%
12.7%
12.7%
0.0%
New Orleans Saints +950   /   -1350
9.3%
8.3%
8.1%
-0.2%
Chicago Bears +1000   /   -1500
8.8%
7.9%
9.1%
1.1%
Philadelphia Eagles +1200   /   -1700
7.5%
6.8%
5.4%
-1.4%
Green Bay Packers +1500   /   -2200
6.1%
5.5%
5.2%
-0.3%
Baltimore Ravens +1600   /   -2300
5.8%
5.2%
5.5%
0.3%
Indianapolis Colts +2000   /   -3000
4.7%
4.2%
4.9%
0.7%
New York Jets +2850   /   -4350
3.4%
3.0%
3.0%
0.0%
Kansas City Chiefs +7150   /   -9650
1.4%
1.2%
1.1%
-0.1%
Seattle Seahawks +23000   /   -37000
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
-0.2%
   
111%
100%
100%