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2011 NBA Trade Deadline Review

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What began as the conclusion to the endless Carmelo Anthony rumors and the surprising Deron Williams trade quickly escalated into a full-blown NBA swap meet.  The 2010-11 season clearly has shifted the landscape in professional basketball, and brought about perhaps the busiest trade deadline ever.

Boston and Oklahoma City pulled off the most shocking move of the day.  The Thunder acquired Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson for Jeff Green and Nenad Kristic.  OKC also got Nazr Mohammed from the Bobcats in a separate trade for D.J. White and Mo Peterson.  The Celtics weren’t done with this move either.  They sent away Luke Harangody and Semih Erden to Cleveland for draft picks, presumably to open up roster space for buyout candidates.  Marquis Daniels was also traded to Sacramento for cash considerations.

The rumored trade involving Gerald Wallace from Wednesday came to fruition on deadline day.  Wallace joins Portland in exchange for Joel Pryzbilla, Dante Cunningham, and draft picks.  Phoenix picked up Aaron Brooks from Houston for Goran Dragic and a 1st round pick.  Houston also dealt Shane Battier back to Memphis for Hasheem Thabeet and another 1st round pick.  Late Wednesday night also brought about Baron Davis being sent to Cleveland in exchange for Mo Williams.

AccuScore re-simulated the rest of the regular season after the flurry of trades had passed. 

BT = before trade deadline
AT = after trade deadline

  REST OF SEASON WINS REST OF SEASON WIN% PLAYOFF CHANCES
TEAM W (BT) W (AT) W (+/-) W (BT) W (AT) W (+/-) PO (BT) PO (AT) PO (+/-)
Boston Celtics 18.7 17.9 -0.8 69.3% 66.4% -2.9% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0%
Charlotte Bobcats 10.8 10.7 -0.1 43.2% 42.7% -0.5% 25.6% 27.6% 2.0%
Cleveland Cavaliers 4.7 4.7 0.0 19.0% 18.8% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Rockets 10.6 10.6 0.1 46.0% 46.3% 0.3% 11.1% 10.1% -1.0%
LA Clippers 10.4 10.3 -0.1 43.1% 42.9% -0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Memphis Grizzlies 11.2 12.2 1.0 48.6% 52.9% 4.3% 64.6% 73.4% 8.8%
Phoenix Suns 12.0 12.1 0.1 44.3% 44.7% 0.4% 24.0% 22.6% -1.4%
Portland Trail Blazers 13.7 13.7 0.0 54.7% 54.7% 0.0% 87.5% 86.7% -0.8%
Oklahoma City Thunder 15.7 16.1 0.3 60.5% 61.8% 1.3% 99.7% 99.8% 0.1%

Here are some key findings:

  • Boston obviously still remains a lock for the playoffs, but its per game win percentage dropped -2.9 percent. More importantly, the Celtics’ chances of winning the No. 1 seed fell from 36 to 32 percent.  Miami is in firm control of the East.
  • Oklahoma City only improved its per game winning percentage slightly at 1.3 percent, but the full benefit of picking up two centers in Perkins and Mohammed will be more evident in the playoffs agaisnt teams like the Spurs, Lakers and Mavericks.  The Thunder have long coveted a defensive center, and now have the size to deal with the Lakers and Spurs in the West.
  • Charlotte is currently in 9th in the East trailing Indiana by 1.5 games.  While the Bobcats lost their best player and are projected for fewer wins, they actually gained two percent in playoff probability due to the overall movement at the deadline.
  • Shane Battier is not projected for big numbers with Memphis, but the Grizzlies did improve their playoff chances the most at +8.8 percent.  He will serve as a nice replacement to the player he was originally traded for, Rudy Gay.  Memphis also unsuccessfully tried to trade O.J. Mayo to Indiana for Josh McRoberts.

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