Overreaction to "Swine" Flu Costing Billions


by Jim Harper

The ever-sensible Shaun Waterman has begun to tally the cost of
overreaction to the fear outbreak inspired by the H1N1 flu strain. He reports in ISN Security Watch:

Even the precautions that you take against this kind of
global flu pandemic could knock about 1.9 [or] 2 percent off global
[economic production]. That’s about a trillion dollars,” according to
journalist Martin Walker, who cited World Bank figures from a study
last year.

The Economist reported last week that the crisis in Mexico was
costing Mexico City’s service and retail industries $55m a day - not
because of the handful of deaths but because of people’s reactions. And
that was even before the national suspension of non-essential public
activities called for this week by the authorities there, which was
expected to double that cost.

Waterman also cites my joke about moving Vice President Biden to an
undisclosed location in future crises - not for his protection or
government continuity, but to keep him away from the media.

It’s comedic wrapping on a substantive point: As long as people look
to government leaders in times of crises, leaders have a responsibility
to communicate carefully, according to a plan, and with message
discipline. If they don’t, the damage can be very high.

Even if all Americans knew to dismiss the words of the Vice President as if he’s a “Crazy Uncle Joe” - and they don’t - foreign tourists certainly don’t know that. Biden harmed the country simply by speaking off the cuff.

Here, an outbreak of flu appears to have caused billions of dollars
in damage to the world economy. One billion lost to the U.S. economy is
about 145 deaths (using the current $6.9 million valuation for a human
life). When overreactions restrict economic activity, that reduces
wealth and thus health and longevity.

Now, imagine what might happen if the United States encountered a
novel, directed threat - some kind of attack that inspires widespread
concern. Will Vice President Biden and officials from a half-dozen
agencies rush forth with personal observations and speculation? The
results could be devastating, especially to a country that is already
suffering economically.

People die from poor situation management, and it makes Americans
worse off. Political leaders should not get a free pass for failing to
communicate well just because it’s hard to do.

The Obama Administration should learn from its many errors in
handling the rather benign H1N1 flu situation. It should train up for
communicating in the event of a real emergency. If the Obama
Administration fails to soothe nerves in the event of some future
terrorist attack, that will be a clear failure of leadership.


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