Trump Passes Clinton In National Poll


In the week after the Republican National Convention, polls show Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton.

The poll, conducted by CNN and ORC, surveyed 1,001 adults from July 22-24.  When asked to choose a preferred candidate between the GOP nominee and presumptive Democratic nominee, 48 percent of respondents chose Trump while 45 percent chose Clinton.  The remaining respondents said they would vote “other” or “neither.”

When respondents were given the option of voting for Trump, Clinton, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein, Trump led the polls with 44 percent of respondents’ support. In this scenario, 39 percent of voters chose Clinton.

Trump has not held this great of a lead over Clinton in the CNN/ORC poll since September 2015.

Historically speaking, post-convention boosts in the polls are not uncommon. In 2000, Al Gore and George W. Bush each achieved eight point leads over each other in the weeks following their Parties’ respective campaigns.

This boost, however, is drastic. Respondents surveyed by the same CNN/ORC poll from July 13-16 gave 49 percent of their support to Clinton and 42 percent of their support to Trump.

CNN reports that Trump’s performance at the RNC earned him a significant number of independent votes. Among independent voters surveyed, 43 percent said that they are more likely to vote for Trump after the convention.

Independents are not the only voters impressed by the overall RNC.

In the week before the convention, 882 surveyed registered voters said that Trump is in touch with problems facing ordinary Americans 37 percent of the time. After the convention, however, that number shot up to 46 percent.

Registered voters also said that Trump is honest and trustworthy, would unite rather than divide the country, and would be someone that voters could be proud to call president more frequently than they did in the weeks before the convention.

The addition of vice presidential running mates could account for some of the change in voter attitude as well. On Friday, July 22, Hillary Clinton announced Virginia Senator Tim Kaine as her running mate.

Since Kaine became a part of the presumptive Democratic ticket, Trump and his campaign advisors have been working to use Kaine’s history as a way to earn support from the Sanders camp and independent voters.

On July 23, Trump tweeted, “Tim Kaine is, and always has been, owned by the banks. Bernie supporters are outraged, was their last choice. Bernie fought for nothing!”

Trump has also stated that Sanders will not receive the Democratic nomination because of the “rigged system” that politicians like “Crooked Hillary” and Kaine inhabit.

Strategically emphasizing Kaine’s support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership could help Trump continue to earn the support of Sanders-enthusiasts who are searching for a name to check in November. That is, until they realize, as CNN reports, that Trump’s running mate Mike Pence supported the Trans-Pacific Partnership as well.

For the time being, however, Trump leads Clinton in the polls.

Democratic voters hope to see another bounce in the polls, like the one that Trump, Gore, and Bush received after their respective conventions, when their convention begins July 25.

Sources: CNN (2), CNN/ORC, Donald J. Trump/Twitter / Photo credit: Gage Skidmore/Flickr

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