Forecast: Clinton To Win White House Easily


Donald Trump's rough June is finally over, but the bad news for his campaign hasn't let up.

Just days after statistician Nate Silver told "Good Morning America" that Democrat Hillary Clinton has about an 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, Moody's Analytics announced it's forecasting a relatively easy victory for the former Secretary of State.

The group, which is a subsidiary of Moody's Corporation, bases its forecasts on a range of different data points, including economic indicators, the popularity of the incumbent president, housing prices, gasoline prices, and American salaries.

Based on that data, Moody's estimates the Democratic nominee will earn 332 electoral votes, while the Republican nominee will earn 206. As The Hill notes, the analytics firm bases its forecast on the overall fortunes of each political party, not the individual candidates. Issues that have been central to the 2016 campaign -- such as the ongoing FBI criminal investigation into Clinton's use of email at the State Department, or concerns about whether Trump's disposition is presidential -- are not taken into consideration for the forecast.

Not everyone trusts Moody's interpretation, however.

The Clinton camp has been using another Moody's report, released earlier in June, to attack the Trump campaign. That report analyzed Trump's economic proposals, with Moody's Analytics chief economist, Mark Zandi, concluding "the U.S. economy will suffer meaningfully" if Trump wins and can implement all of his proposals across the board.

Trump's policies, Zandi claimed, would "result in a lot of lost jobs, higher unemployment, higher interest rates, lower stock prices.”

But critics pointed out that Zandi is a registered Democrat who personally donated $2,700 to Clinton's campaign, according to Open Secrets.

Meanwhile, others have criticized the analytics firm's methods. Among them is Kevin Hassett, director of research for domestic policy at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, who told The New York Times that Zandi is underestimating the benefit of Trump's proposed tax cuts "by kind of a large margin."

“I think the bottom line is that the model that they’re using is not a very good model,” Hassett told the newspaper, qualifying his statement by crediting Zandi with more accurate work on other indicators.

Separate from forecasts by statisticians like Silver or economists like Zandi are the polls -- as of July 1, the Real Clear Politics aggregate of all national polls shows Clinton enjoys a 4.8 percent lead over her Republican rival.

Sources: The Hill, The New York Times, Real Clear Politics / Photo credit: Ad Meskens/​Wikimedia Commons

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