Eagles

Analyzing Eagles' Vick as Passer and Runner

| by

Michael Vick intrigues me, his personal behavior aside. I suppose his playing style just stands out in a league full of clones.

Last year I wrote that Vick was a better passer than most people think. His conventional statistics, such as passer rating and completion percentage, obscured his true performance. The difference isn't just the running yards he could gain, but the fact that he tended to throw deep because he was his own check-down option. He's back starting this Sunday, so it's a good time to take another look at Vick's career, this time through the lenses of Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability Added (WPA).

It's true Vick is below average as a passer, but he more than makes up for it with his running. These EPA and WPA stats account for everything--sacks, fumbles, touchdowns, interceptions, etc. His career EPA shows he generated a net advantage of 152 points over his six years and change. He has generated just over 3.3 WPA over the same period. Over half of his career success came during the 2002 campaign, his best season by far. He's started 72 games over his career, so those numbers equate to about 2.1 net EPA per game and 0.05 WPA per game.

Year
Pass WPA
Run WPA
Other WPA
Total WPA

2001
-0.74
0.31
-0.09
-0.52

Popular Video

This judge looked an inmate square in the eyes and did something that left the entire courtroom in tears:

2002
-0.09
1.79
-0.64
1.06

2003
-0.11
0.18
-0.03
0.04

2004
-0.85
2.18
-0.11
1.22

2005
-0.71
1.28
-0.13
0.44

2006
-0.65
1.84
-0.12
1.07

2009
0.20
-0.06
-0.10
0.04

Career
-2.95
7.52
-1.22
3.35

Year
Pass EPA
Run EPA
Other EPA
Total EPA

2001
-5.4
-42.1
28.3
-19.2

2002
-12.2
43.6
50.8
82.2

2003
-1.7
-4.9
15.7
9.2

2004
-4.1
-51.0
73.0
17.9

2005
-3.3
-28.0
46.5
15.2

2006
-3.6
-22.6
63.5
37.3

2009
-4.1
9.4
4.1
9.5

Career
-34.3
-95.5
281.9
152.1

 

Both stats show his passing as well below average, but his running ability more than compensates. I'm not sure what Andy Reid's advice for Vick is, but John Von Neumann would certainly tell him to run far more often.