Speaking of money, I would like to help you guys out. This year (season) I’ll be doing something different. A new format if you will. I’ll break down the televised fights like normal, but I’ll include the betting line for you guys. Just in case you want to make some money like me. But I’ll just be picking the winners of the un-aired prelims, not breaking them down. You guys don’t care about those anyway.
MMA betting can be confusing, so let me break it down. In most MMA fights, there will be a favorite and an underdog. The favorite will have a negative (-) number, while the underdog will have a positive (+) number. MMA money lines are based on units of $100. If the favorite is -225, it means that you have to wager $225 to win $100. But if you are betting on the underdog, the formula is different. If the underdog is at +185, it means that if you wager $100 you will win $185 for a total of $285. Easy enough, right? Good.
Now onto the card. This was shaping up to be a beast of a card. Shane Carwin was supposed to fight Roy Nelson and Jose Aldo was supposed to defend his title against Josh Grispi. Those fights got scrapped for various reasons, mostly injury, and we are left with a decent card. I do think that the Brown/Nunes fight should be televised though. Maybe that’s just me.
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If you guys are going to bet, head over to Bodog.com. As always, I appreciate half of your earnings.
Lightweight bout: Jacob Volkmann vs. Antonio McKee
My Pick: McKee, Round 3, Decision
Welterweight bout: Daniel Roberts vs. Greg Soto
My Pick: Roberts, Round 2, Submission
Featherweight bout: Mike Brown vs. Diego Nunes
My Pick: Brown, Round 1, (T)KO
lON TV CARD
Middleweight bout: Phil Baroni (+175) vs. Brad Tavares (-215)
Am I the only one who wants to see this? I can’t be. This will probably be “Fight of the Night” or “Knockout of the Night.” No way this fight ever gets to the ground unless someone is just trying to win the round. These guys are going in there to take each other out. Gotta love those battles. I’m thinking both will land shots and both will take punishment. I just think Baroni will be a little more gassed in the end, giving Tavares the edge in this one.
My Pick: Tavares, Round 3, Decision
Featherweight bout: Josh Grispi (-290) vs. Dustin Poirier (+230)
A bit of a disappointment if you’re Grispi. From fighting Jose Aldo for the title to fighting a relative “nobody.” Grispi will win this, but Dana White already said that he’s not guaranteed a title shot anymore. I’m sure if he goes out there and destroys Poirier Dana might rethink that notion.
My Pick: Grispi, Round 1, Submission
Lightweight bout: Marcus Davis (+210) vs. Jeremy Stephens (-270)
Marcus Davis is just getting too old for this game. He’ll always have that one punch knockout chance, but Stephens is just a better fighter at this stage in both their careers. Davis will get beat to the punch most of this fight and will drop a decision. He’ll probably retire after this, as he alluded to a few months back.
My Pick: Stephens, Round 3, Decision
Lightweight bout: Clay Guida (-150) vs. Takanori Gomi (+120)
The only way I can see Gomi winning this is if he knocks out the iron chinned Guida. I just don’t see that happening. Guida isn’t going to get tired and he’s going to push a ferocious pace. I don’t think Gomi will be able to handle it and Guida will get some takedowns and do some ground and pound. He won’t finish Gomi though.
My Pick: Guida, Round 3, Decision
Welterweight bout: Nate Diaz (EVEN) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (-130)
This fight is very interesting to me. If Diaz can keep the fight standing he’ll pick Kim apart. That’s a big if though. DHK is one of the best judo practitioners in the game. If he wants you on the ground he can pretty much take you there. He’s a bit stronger than Diaz, so he’ll probably win on takedowns.
My Pick: Kim, Round 3, Decision
Light Heavyweight bout: Brandon Vera (+115) vs. Thiago Silva (-145)
I hate to pick against Vera because if he loses he’ll probably be looking for another job, but I just don’t see how he’s going to be Silva. He might be able to leg kick him a bit, but if we are going strike for strike, Silva has the power to put Vera’s lights out at any given moment.
My Pick: Silva, Round 2, (T)KO
Middleweight bout: Chris Leben (-170) vs. Brian Stann (+150)
I just don’t think Leben is all that good. He can take a punch, that’s for sure. But overall, he lacks something. I don’t think Stann will be able to knock Leben out, but he’s technically a better striker. And if he can somehow get Leben to the ground, he could choke him out. That’s what I’m thinking.
My Pick: Stann, Round 2, Submission
Lightweight Championship bout: Frankie Edgar (+115) vs. Gray Maynard (-145)
I heard that Frankie Edgar said he thinks he can finish Gray Maynard. I laugh at such notions. Not just for him. If either of these guys finish this fight I’ll be shocked. That being said, I think it will be close. Edgar is much faster than Maynard, but Maynard will have his takedowns. That’s where this fight will be won. I don’t think Edgar will be able to stay off his back long enough to outstrike Maynard.
My Pick: Maynard, Round 5, Decision