NCAA Football

College Football Week 5 Preview: Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State

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Both the Aggies and Cowboys are 3-0, but the country knows virtually nothing about either team. The best team either has faced is probably 2-2 Tulsa so even though they have scored a combined 294, Thursday night will be the first true test as the Big 12 schedule kicks off.

With Oklahoma State having the home crowd, AccuScore projects it to win over 60% of the time led by star running back Kendall Hunter.  Hunter likely is the best player on either team, and he is forecasted for over 140 yards rushing and nearly 6 yards per carry. After missing much of the 2009 season due to injury, he already has 473 yards through 3 games with 6 TDs. He has a 77% chance of at least 1 score on the ground in this game, and is averaging 1.5 per simulation. Hunter is leading the Cowboys to an average victory margin of 7 points.

The play of quarterback Jerrod Johnson will be key for A&M. Billed as a preseason candidate for the Heisman, Johnson has struggled somewhat considering the level of competition he has faced. He completed just 35% of his passes against Florida International, and 4 were intercepted. Johnson must play like he did the first two games of the season when he threw for well over 300 yards in both games with 6 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. In simulations where the Aggies win, Johnson has a 3.25 TD-INT ratio compared to just 1.32 in losses.

AccuScore has gone 1-1 ATS with the Aggies and 2-1 ATS with the Cowboys. We are also a combined 6-0 with both teams on game winners. Better yet, combined Over/Under totals this season are 4-1. Simulations are averaging a total of 67 points.