Ah yes, the TUF Finale. An event we love to watch, but every bettor avoids like that crazy guy panhandling outside the liquor store. While in season’s past, there was the occasional value bet to be had, this year proved to be the worst season of the show yet, with little true talent being added to the Welterweight division. As such, I’ll keep my betting breakdown to the established fighters on this card.
As well as leaving out the TUF 13 Alumni, I’m also avoiding a stance on Tim Credeur vs. Ed Herman. With both men coming off serious injuries and with lengthy layoffs, this one is a complete crapshoot and not worth your wager.
Anthony Pettis -150
Clay Guida +120
Valid Props: Fight Of The Night
While Pettis might have impressed the MMA world with his amazing flying fence kick, I found myself much more impressed with his matwork. Having stuffed Shane Roller constantly on takedowns and made Benson Henderson look none-too-fantastic grappling, his true value appears to be on the canvas. Guida is a 50/50 fight for almost anyone, but value on Pettis to finish this or look great trying.
Josh Grispi -160
George Roop +130
Valid Props: Roop by Decision, Grispi Inside Distance
Grispi has potential to be a terror in another year or two, but looked like a novice against Dustin Poirier last time out. While Roop certainly didn’t fare much better, he has a proven gas tank and smart use of range in his striking. This is a toss-up, but Roop tends to make mistakes when hurt and may fall victim to Grispi late in this one.
Scott Jorgensen -450
Ken Stone +275
Valid Props: Jorgensen Inside Distance
Ken Stone is a talented individual, but finds himself as the tune-up in Jorgensen’s tune-up fight. The wrestling and speed alone is enough to do Stone in here, as Jorgensen runs his opponent over for a quick victory.
Reuben Duran -240
Francisco Rivera +180
Valid Props: None
An underrated killer in the division, Duran lost a split decision to Takaya Mizugaki last time out, but showed he’s certainly UFC material. Rivera has had far less luck and while a tough fighter, doesn’t have the skill set for this level of competition. Duran has a speed and skill edge that will spell doom for Rivera no matter where this fight plays out.
Kyle Kingsbury -150
Fabio Maldonado +120
Valid Props: Fight Ends Inside Distance
In a bout that could turn into a serious scrap, the very capable Kyle Kingsbury will face Brazilian KO machine Fabio Maldonado. While Kingsbury is still developing his skills, he’s proven he can turn his natural athletic ability into some functional offense. While Maldonado can hit like a jackhammer, his defensive abilities are absolute garbage, and will make this a tough fight for him to win. Kingsbury is smart enough to move inside and work the pummel and takedowns to put Maldonado out in a hurry.
Jeremy Stephens -300
Daniel Downes +220
Valid Props: Fight Goes Distance
Another prospect out of Roufusport, Danny Downes will take a short-notice fight against Lightweight killer Jeremy Stephens. While I had Stephen’s pegged to crumple Brookins in their bout, Downes is a different fighter all together, and makes for a fairly competitive match-up. While I don’t see Downes taking a victory here, I do see enough measured boxing and guts in the young man to see that he makes it to the bell.