Fantasy NBA

2011 NBA Fantasy: League's Least Efficient Shooters

| by Give Me The Rock

In part 1 of this post, I took a look at the most efficient shooters in the league for fantasy basketball using effective (or weighted) percentages. Now, let’s talk about some of the worst percentage guys in the league for 2010-11.

Most Controversial/Worst Free Throw Percentage: Dwight Howard
FG: 59.3% at 13.4 shots per game (60.7% EFG)
FT: 59.6% at 11.7 shots per game (20.9% EFT)

You know the story on Dwight Howard by now: league leading field goal percentage, category killing free throw percentage. Howard’s 59.6% from the line is a hair above his FG%, but that’s not the real problem. A few guys shoot worse from the line than Howard (like Andrew Bogut and his 44% this season). No, it’s the 11.7 attempts a game that kills fantasy teams and forces Howard owners in H2H leagues to often punt the FT% category. You can actually be competitive in FT% with Howard on your team, but it’s not something I’d recommend.

Worst All-Around Shooter/Biggest Decline: Andrew Bogut
FG: 49.5% at 11.4 shots per game (49.3% EFG)
FT: 44.2% at 3.3 shots per game (48.5% EFT)

According to some of his teammates, Bogut played at about 70% health this season thanks to a number of injuries, but most notably the lingering effects he had from that crazy fall on his right arm at the end of the 2010 season. Even Bogut has said there were times during the season when he had no feeling in his arm. I’m sure that’s all true, because he certainly shot the ball like a man playing with only one arm. His FG% fell from 58% two years ago down to 49% this season, and his FT% fell from an already bad low-60’s down to 44% on the year. Provided Bogut can actually get and stay healthy (and that’s a big if), he could be in for a big bounce back year on offense next season.


Biggest Decline Counting Threes: Mo Williams
FG: 39.9% at 12.6 shots per game (39.6% EFG)
FT: 85.3% at 3.1 shots per game (83.9% EFT)
3PT: 32.4% at 4.2 shots per game (30.1% E3P)

The good news is that Williams played better once he got traded to the Clippers. The bad news is that just demonstrates how pathetic he was for the Cavs at the beginning of the year. Williams moped through 36 games with Cleveland, shooting 39% from the floor and 27% from three, and logging about as many injuries as games he played in. His shot magically returned when he got to LA, so expect him to be the Mo Williams we all know and love again next year.

Worst Field Goal Percentage: Brandon Jennings
FG: 39.0% at 14.7 shots per game (37.4% EFG)

Jennings just edges out Gilbert Arenas as the least efficient shooter from the field this season. Arenas was actually worse on a percentage basis, hitting only 37% of his shots, but it was Jennings 14.7 shots per game (to Arenas’ 10.5) that really killed fantasy owners. To be fair, this was only Jennings second season and he’s still just 21 years old, so there is plenty of time to work on his shot. It’ll be a big step if he can crack 40% from the floor next season.

Worst Three Point Shooter: Jordan Crawford
FG: 38.4% at 11.9 shots per game (38.5% EFG)
3PT: 25.8% at 3.0 shots per game (24.1% E3P)

Crawford was a big boost to fantasy teams that grabbed him after he was traded from the Hawks to the Wizards. On a team with nothing to play for and plenty of injuries, he got the green light to go nuts and put up some huge scoring games, like his 39 points against the Heat on March 30th. But his free reign to jack up shots came at a price – 38% shooting from the floor and 26% from three. Crawford connected on just 0.8 of his 3.0 three point attempts per game on the year. The kid has balls, no doubt, he just needs the rest of his game to catch up with that confidence.

Least Efficient Rookie: DeMarcus Cousins
FG: 43.0% at 12.4 shots per game (42.9% EFG)
FT: 68.7% at 5.0 shots per game (65.8% EFT)

Blake Griffin was worse from the line, but no rookie was quite the double non-threat from both the field and the free throw line as DeMarcus Cousins. Not to knock the guy – he did average 14.1 points and 8.6 rebounds a game and started most of the season for the Kings as a 20 year old. But checking out his stats on Hoopdata and it’s clear that Cousins loved the long two this season, loved it like Tommy Boy loved his new pet. 25% of Cousins shots came from 16-23 feet and he connected on those shots 37% of the time. He actually had trouble with any shot that wasn’t at the rim, which is an indication both how good he can be in the paint and how much work his jump shot still needs.

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