NFL

NFL Team Efficiency Rankings - Week 17

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A very unlikely season. It's possible that 3 of the top 5 teams in overall efficiency will not make the playoffs.

The number one team is already eliminated. The #12 and #22 teams will have byes in the NFC. The #29 and #30 teams are duking it out on Sunday night  for a home playoff game, and the #26 team is theoretically still alive to win its division. That's the NFL.

SD's GWP is 0.81, which means they theoretically should have an .810 winning percentage over a large sample of games. After 15 games, the probability of such a team having at most 8 wins is only 1.4%. Special teams, bad luck, or whatever the adversity, 7.8 YPA and 5.4 defensive YPA should cure a lot of ills, especially combined with better than average interception rates on both sides of the ball.

The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability.

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The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability, which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.


GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates. If you're scratching your head wondering why a team is ranked where it is, just scroll down to the second table to see the stats of all 32 teams.

Click on the table headers to sort.

 

RANK
TEAM
LAST WK
GWP
Opp GWP
O RANK
D RANK

1
SD
1
0.81
0.44
2
2

2
PIT
3
0.74
0.51
6
1

3
GB
5
0.73
0.52
3
11

4
NE
2
0.72
0.59
1
23

5
NYG
4
0.68
0.49
7
5

6
PHI
6
0.65
0.51
4
12

7
BAL
7
0.65
0.52
12
7

8
MIA
8
0.61
0.56
23
8

9
NYJ
11
0.60
0.57
24
3

10
KC
12
0.58
0.45
13
9

11
IND
9
0.58
0.52
15
13

12
CHI
13
0.56
0.51
28
6

13
MIN
16
0.53
0.55
25
10

14
TEN
10
0.53
0.53
22
4

15
BUF
17
0.52
0.58
19
18

16
HOU
14
0.51
0.54
5
30

17
CLE
19
0.50
0.53
21
16

18
NO
18
0.48
0.42
11
20

19
DAL
15
0.47
0.51
9
29

20
TB
23
0.47
0.40
8
26

21
CIN
24
0.46
0.57
16
24

22
ATL
20
0.44
0.46
17
21

23
DET
26
0.40
0.56
26
22

24
OAK
22
0.39
0.49
14
15

25
WAS
21
0.38
0.52
27
27

26
JAC
27
0.37
0.54
18
31

27
SF
25
0.36
0.43
20
19

28
DEN
28
0.33
0.47
10
32

29
STL
30
0.27
0.39
30
17

30
SEA
29
0.27
0.42
29
28

31
ARI
32
0.21
0.41
31
25

32
CAR
31
0.21
0.47
32
14

And here are each team's efficiency stats.

 

TEAM
OPASS
ORUN
OINT%
OFUM%
DPASS
DRUN
DINT%
PENRATE

ARI
4.9
4.4
3.3
1.2
6.3
4.4
3.4
0.44

ATL
5.9
3.9
1.7
0.4
6.3
4.5
4.0
0.30

BAL
6.4
3.8
1.9
0.6
5.7
4.0
3.1
0.33

BUF
5.8
4.4
3.4
1.4
6.1
4.7
2.2
0.32

CAR
4.3
4.2
4.4
2.2
6.1
4.0
3.5
0.43

CHI
6.1
3.8
4.4
0.1
5.7
3.8
3.6
0.40

CIN
6.0
3.6
3.3
1.2
6.5
4.5
3.0
0.36

CLE
6.0
4.0
3.4
1.7
6.4
4.1
4.0
0.34

DAL
6.8
4.1
3.5
0.6
7.1
4.3
3.4
0.44

DEN
6.6
3.8
1.8
1.7
7.2
4.6
1.9
0.47

DET
5.7
4.0
2.5
0.8
6.4
4.6
2.7
0.51

GB
7.1
3.9
2.3
0.4
5.7
4.6
4.5
0.32

HOU
6.7
4.7
2.2
0.7
7.6
3.9
2.3
0.33

IND
6.7
3.8
2.7
0.5
6.0
4.7
2.0
0.35

JAC
6.1
4.6
4.5
1.0
7.4
4.5
2.7
0.36

KC
6.2
4.8
1.4
0.9
5.7
4.2
2.5
0.38

MIA
6.0
3.7
3.8
1.4
5.9
3.5
2.3
0.29

MIN
5.8
4.5
5.3
1.0
6.0
3.9
2.9
0.41

NE
7.0
4.4
1.0
0.1
6.5
4.3
4.2
0.36

NO
6.6
3.9
3.4
0.6
5.8
4.3
1.9
0.44

NYG
6.9
4.7
4.7
1.5
5.6
4.2
3.0
0.40

NYJ
5.8
4.3
2.5
1.4
5.7
3.6
1.6
0.47

OAK
6.0
4.9
3.4
1.0
6.2
4.5
2.3
0.63

PHI
6.6
5.5
1.9
0.8
6.1
4.1
4.5
0.56

PIT
6.7
4.1
2.0
1.2
5.5
3.0
3.3
0.48

SD
7.8
3.9
2.4
1.4
5.4
3.6
3.1
0.35

SF
6.0
4.1
3.2
0.9
6.6
3.5
2.6
0.49

SEA
5.8
3.7
3.9
0.4
6.6
4.2
2.0
0.43

STL
5.4
3.7
2.5
0.3
5.9
4.5
2.6
0.43

TB
6.3
4.7
1.3
1.0
6.0
4.7
3.8
0.43

TEN
6.1
4.4
3.4
0.9
6.1
3.9
2.9
0.51

WAS
5.9
4.2
3.2
0.9
6.8
4.8
2.4
0.32

Avg
6.2
4.2
3.0
0.9
6.2
4.2
2.9
0.41