NFL

NFL Team Efficiency Rankings - Week 14

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San Diego's strange season continues, but they lose their #1 spots on offense and defense. NE now owns the offensive honors while Pittsburgh owns the defensive title.

The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability.

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The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability, which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates. If you're scratching your head wondering why a team is ranked where it is, just scroll down to the second table to see the stats of all 32 teams.

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Click on the table headers to sort.

 

RANK
TEAM
LAST WK
GWP
Opp GWP
O RANK
D RANK

1
SD
1
0.80
0.43
2
2

2
GB
2
0.75
0.51
3
8

3
PIT
3
0.72
0.51
9
1

4
NYG
4
0.71
0.47
8
6

5
NE
7
0.69
0.56
1
23

6
PHI
6
0.66
0.51
5
11

7
MIA
5
0.65
0.56
14
9

8
BAL
9
0.63
0.51
11
10

9
IND
13
0.60
0.55
18
7

10
MIN
12
0.59
0.54
16
12

11
KC
10
0.58
0.44
12
13

12
NYJ
8
0.57
0.55
24
5

13
CHI
14
0.56
0.50
27
4

14
HOU
15
0.56
0.56
4
30

15
NO
16
0.55
0.40
6
18

16
TEN
11
0.54
0.54
26
3

17
DAL
17
0.53
0.56
7
26

18
CLE
18
0.48
0.51
20
16

19
BUF
19
0.45
0.57
25
20

20
ATL
20
0.43
0.48
13
24

21
WAS
21
0.43
0.56
17
27

22
TB
23
0.39
0.41
15
25

23
CIN
22
0.38
0.53
29
21

24
DEN
24
0.38
0.50
10
32

25
SF
25
0.37
0.42
22
17

26
JAC
27
0.36
0.57
19
31

27
OAK
26
0.36
0.51
21
15

28
DET
28
0.33
0.56
28
22

29
SEA
29
0.31
0.43
23
28

30
STL
30
0.24
0.36
30
19

31
CAR
31
0.23
0.46
32
14

32
ARI
32
0.18
0.43
31
29

And here are each team's efficiency stats.

 

TEAM
OPASS
ORUN
OINT%
OFUM%
DPASS
DRUN
DINT%
PENRATE

ARI
4.9
4.3
3.9
1.0
6.8
4.4
2.9
0.46

ATL
6.1
4.0
1.6
0.1
6.7
4.3
3.8
0.34

BAL
6.6
3.6
2.0
0.8
5.7
4.0
2.7
0.36

BUF
5.7
4.4
3.2
1.4
6.4
4.7
2.2
0.32

CAR
4.5
4.0
4.7
2.4
6.0
4.1
3.9
0.43

CHI
6.0
3.9
4.3
0.2
5.5
3.7
3.6
0.40

CIN
5.7
3.7
3.2
1.3
6.5
4.6
3.5
0.35

CLE
6.0
4.0
3.1
1.4
6.4
4.1
4.4
0.38

DAL
6.9
3.9
3.4
0.5
7.1
4.2
3.2
0.44

DEN
6.6
3.8
1.3
1.4
7.3
4.3
1.6
0.46

DET
5.7
3.7
2.6
1.0
6.6
4.6
2.4
0.54

GB
7.2
4.0
2.2
0.5
5.5
4.5
3.9
0.35

HOU
6.8
4.8
2.0
0.5
7.6
3.9
2.3
0.33

IND
6.7
3.5
2.8
0.6
6.0
4.8
2.4
0.33

JAC
6.0
4.6
4.6
0.9
7.7
4.3
2.9
0.33

KC
6.4
4.9
1.1
0.6
5.9
4.2
2.0
0.38

MIA
6.3
3.8
4.1
1.3
5.9
3.7
2.4
0.28

MIN
6.3
4.5
5.5
0.7
6.2
3.6
2.6
0.37

NE
7.2
4.2
1.3
0.2
6.7
4.3
3.8
0.36

NO
6.9
4.1
3.3
0.8
5.8
4.1
1.8
0.41

NYG
7.0
4.7
4.2
1.6
5.5
4.0
3.4
0.41

NYJ
6.0
4.5
2.8
1.4
5.9
3.4
1.7
0.52

OAK
5.7
4.7
3.6
1.1
6.2
4.4
1.9
0.64

PHI
6.8
5.2
1.4
0.8
6.1
4.1
4.9
0.60

PIT
6.8
4.0
2.6
1.2
5.7
3.0
3.0
0.48

SD
7.8
4.0
2.4
1.4
5.4
3.7
3.4
0.38

SF
6.0
4.2
3.4
0.9
6.4
3.6
2.3
0.50

SEA
6.0
3.6
3.4
0.4
6.6
4.2
2.2
0.42

STL
5.4
3.7
2.3
0.2
5.9
4.5
2.3
0.45

TB
6.0
4.4
1.6
0.7
6.1
4.6
4.7
0.46

TEN
6.1
4.3
3.6
1.0
5.8
4.1
3.3
0.53

WAS
6.1
4.1
3.4
1.1
6.6
5.0
2.4
0.34

Avg
6.3
4.2
3.0
0.9
6.3
4.2
2.9
0.42