NFL

NFL Team Efficiency Rankings - Week 13

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The toughest schedules so far this year belong to AFC East teams, Miami and New England in particular. Jacksonville has also faced a tough slate of opponents to date.

Aside from the NFC West teams that get to play each other twice, the softest schedule so far belongs to San Diego.

The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability.

The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability, which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

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GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates. If you're scratching your head wondering why a team is ranked where it is, just scroll down to the second table to see the stats of all 32 teams.

Click on the table headers to sort.

RANK
TEAM
LAST WK
GWP
Opp GWP
O RANK
D RANK

1
SD
1
0.83
0.42
1
1

2
GB
3
0.76
0.53
3
8

3
PIT
2
0.75
0.51
6
2

4
NYG
5
0.71
0.47
8
6

5
PHI
4
0.67
0.50
4
7

6
MIA
6
0.67
0.58
12
9

7
NE
9

0.65
0.57
2
23

8
NYJ
10
0.62
0.53
20
5

9
BAL
8

0.62
0.50
14
12

10
TEN
7
0.58
0.56
19
3

11
KC
11
0.58
0.43
11
14

12
MIN
13
0.58
0.54
16
11

13
IND
12
0.58
0.55
18
10

14
CHI
14
0.58
0.51
27
4

15
HOU
15
0.54
0.55
5
30

16
NO
16
0.53
0.40
10
19

17
DAL
17
0.52
0.55
7
27

18
CLE
18
0.47
0.51
21
17

19
BUF
23
0.46
0.57
23
21

20
ATL
19
0.44
0.49
13
25

21
WAS
21
0.43
0.55
17
24

22
CIN
20

0.42
0.54
28
18

23
TB
22
0.41
0.41
15
26

24
DEN
25
0.37
0.49
9
32

25
SF
26
0.36
0.39
24
15

26
OAK
28
0.33
0.49
26
16

27
JAC
24
0.32
0.57
22
31

28
DET
27
0.31
0.56
29
22

29
SEA
29
0.28
0.44
25
28

30
STL
30
0.24
0.38
30
20

31
CAR
31
0.23
0.48
32
13

32
ARI
32
0.17
0.44
31
29

And here are each team's efficiency stats.

TEAM
OPASS
ORUN
OINT%
OFUM%
DPASS
DRUN
DINT%
PENRATE

ARI
5.0
4.1
3.7
1.1
6.9
4.5
2.9
0.46

ATL
6.2
4.1
1.2
0.2
7.0
4.2
3.9
0.33

BAL
6.6
3.7
2.2
0.8
5.7
4.2
2.7
0.35

BUF
5.7
4.5
3.1
1.2
6.4
4.6
1.2
0.30

CAR
4.5
3.9
4.9
2.4
6.0
4.1
3.6
0.43

CHI
5.9
3.8
4.6
0.2
5.5
3.6
3.8
0.42

CIN
5.7
3.7
3.4
1.3
6.3
4.5
3.5
0.35

CLE
6.1
4.2
3.4
1.5
6.5
4.1
3.9
0.38

DAL
7.0
3.8
3.6
0.5
7.0
4.3
2.5
0.46

DEN
6.9
3.5
1.4
1.5
7.4
4.3
1.8
0.48

DET
5.6
3.6
2.7
0.9
6.6
4.6
2.6
0.55

GB
7.2
4.0
2.4
0.6
5.5
4.5
3.9
0.36

HOU
6.6
4.9
1.9
0.5
7.5
3.9
2.2
0.34

IND
6.6
3.6
2.3
0.7
6.0
4.9
2.6
0.34

JAC
6.0
4.5
4.9
1.0
8.0
4.3
2.6
0.34

KC
6.5
4.9
1.2
0.5
6.1
4.0
2.1
0.37

MIA
6.4
3.8
3.7
1.4
6.0
3.8
2.6
0.28

MIN
6.2
4.4
4.8
0.7
6.2
3.6
2.5
0.39

NE
7.0
4.3
1.4
0.2
6.9
4.2
3.4
0.39

NO
6.8
3.9
3.3
0.7
5.8
4.2
2.0
0.37

NYG
7.1
4.6
4.3
1.7
5.5
4.0
3.2
0.43

NYJ
6.1
4.5
2.2
1.4
5.6
3.4
1.8
0.52

OAK
5.7
4.7
3.7
1.3
6.2
4.4
1.8
0.62

PHI
6.6
5.4
1.3
0.7
5.8
4.1
5.1
0.59

PIT
6.9
4.2
2.6
1.1
5.7
3.0
3.2
0.48

SD
8.0
4.0
2.4
1.5
5.3
3.5
3.6
0.39

SF
6.0
4.2
3.4
1.0
6.2
3.6
2.5
0.53

SEA
6.0
3.5
3.1
0.4
6.8
4.2
2.1
0.45

STL
5.4
3.8
2.2
0.2
6.1
4.4
2.0
0.47

TB
6.2
4.3
1.5
0.8
6.2
4.7
4.6
0.43

TEN
6.2
4.4
3.3
1.0
5.8
4.0
3.4
0.55

WAS
6.2
4.0
3.3
1.0
6.6
4.9
2.4
0.35

Avg
6.3
4.2
2.9
0.9
6.3
4.1
2.9
0.42