NFL

NFL Analysis: Will Drew Brees or Any Other Quarterback Pass for 5K Yards in 2012?

Will there be a 6,000 yard passer in 2012? That’s been the latest question making the rounds in the NFL. It’s a misleading question based off a misleading season. The question leads NFL fans to believe that last year was an ordinary season and the increased passing stats were due to the new “passing league”. Last year in the NFL was an anomaly.

There are several factors that led to Drew Brees breaking Dan Marino’s single season passing record and two other quarterbacks joining him in the 5,000 yard club.  Nipping at the trio’s heels was none other than Eli Manning who fell just 67 yards short of 5,000. It’s true that the NFL has become more of a passing league.

The receivers are allowed to get away with the most blatant of offensive pass interferences while defensive backs aren’t allowed to whisper while the ball is in the air or it will draw a flag. All of that is well and good but it doesn’t single handedly explain the massive increase in passing yards last season. To understand that, you have to dig a little deeper. Let’s look at the top four passers from 2011 as compared to the previous two seasons.

2011                                           2010                                           2009

Drew Brees - 5,476                Philip Rivers - 4,710               Matt Schaub – 4,770

Tom Brady – 5,235                 Peyton Manning – 4,700      Peyton Manning – 4,500

Matt Stafford - 5,035            Drew Brees – 4,620                 Tony Romo - 4,483

Eli Manning - 4,933               Matt Schaub – 4,370               Aaron Rodgers – 4.434

There was a noticeable jump in the top five passing offenses over the last three seasons.

2011                                             2010                                          2009

Saints - 334.2                             Colts – 288.1                               Texans – 290.9

Patriots – 317.8                         Chargers – 282.4                       Colts – 282.2

Packers – 307.8                         Saints - 277.6                             Patriots – 277.2

Lions – 300.9                              Texans – 259.0                          Saints – 272.2

Giants – 295.9                             Packers – 257.8                        Chargers - 271.1

The very best passing attacks from the 2009 and 2010 seasons wouldn’t have finished in the top 5 of 2011.  The NFL has been transitioning over to more of a passing league, but nothing happened as far as a rule change or offensive scheme that would have led to this drastic of a change statically. However, there was an event that happened during the 2011 offseason that caused the increased passing efficiency…the lockout.

Everyone, including myself, thought that the lockout would lead to sluggish offenses and out of sync chemistry. We were all wrong. What I realized after the first few weeks of the 2011 season was that the exact opposite scenario happened. The NFL defenses lacked an identity and a feel for one another. The more I thought about it the more sense it made. On an offense, whether heavily run or pass based, a few players need to be in sync with each other. The running backs need just a few offensive linemen to hold off their man and open a hole and then the rest of the play was placed on one individual’s shoulders.

The passing game played out the same way. As long as the quarterback had protection he could find the flaw in the defense and exploit their weakness. He only had to be on the same page as the target that found the hole in the defense. The defensive side of the ball was completely different. The NFL defenses didn’t have an offseason to mesh as a unit. They didn’t have a feel for where their teammates were going to be on a given play. In zone defenses, quarterbacks were shooting fish in the open barrel. In the simplest form, the offense needed two people to be on the same page, where the defenses needed 11 men to be on the same page for an entire 60 minutes. It was asking for the impossible.

While everyone ponders if there will be a 6,000 yard passer in 2012, I wonder how hard of a time the quarterbacks will have adjusting to defenses that are vastly more improved and if we will even see one of these signal callers put up 5,000 yards of passing this season.

Jayson Braddock is an NFL Scout / NFL Writer & On-Air Personality. Jayson is also a football insider for the Dylan Gwinn show on 790 AM in Houston, TX - Listeners NOT in the Houston metropolitan area can hear Jayson on iheart radio or sports790.com. You can also catch Jayson on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio with Scott Engel and the morning crew every Thursday at 10:30am ET. You may email Jayson directly @ [email protected] or follow him on Twitter @JaysonBraddock

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