Will Indianapolis Really Get Another Super Bowl?
ProFootballTalk reported this week that Indianapolis so enjoyed having those nice folks over for the Super Bowl that they would like to host another.
The writers of ProFootballTalk, following the editorial guidelines of their Editor in Chief, Mike Florio, tend to assume the best of intentions of owners of the NFL, unless they are doing something shockingly stupid. PFT was all over the "story" that time the Tennessee Titan's owner, Bud Adams, flipped a bird.
Thus, PFT writer Michael David Smith concluded at the end of that whole "Indy wants another Super Bowl" article that, "There’s no doubt that Indianapolis is a fine Super Bowl host. And there’s little doubt that the NFL owners will vote to give Indianapolis another Super Bowl."
My initial reaction to that quote can be found on the IDYFT Facebook page, which you should probably sign up for: "Count me as one positively filled to the brim with doubt. There have been 47 Super Bowls, and all but four of them have been played in cities no further north than San Francisco."
But, well, sure, at some point, Indianapolis will host another Super Bowl. But, historically and mathematically speaking, what are the odds that a city like Indianapolis will get to host 2 Super Bowls?
Depending on you read stats, the odds of Lucas Oil Field hosting a 2nd Super Bowl is hovering right around 0%. The guys at PFT should know that. Here's the deal...draw a horizontal line through (of all places) Albuquerque--anything below that line will probably host multiple Super Bowls in the same stadium. Anything above that line? 0-1 Super Bowls per stadium, thank you very much.
How long will Indy have to wait? Well, the NFL is branching out into inclement weather stadiums in 2014, by going into NYC for that Super Bowl. If that works out, presumably, Seattle will be in line to get their first Super Bowl ever. And then Minnesota's new stadium comes on line shortly thereafter. And then they'll need to rotate through Miami and New Orleans again. And then, in 2016 and 2017, there will be eitherer new stadiums in Atlanta, San Diego, or Oakland, or San Fran, or new cities. I think it is cute that PFT thinks Super Bowls are awarded based on merit. PFT should read our stuff.
The short version of it is this--Indianapolis is above the Albuquerque line. Therefore, no matter what PFT thinks about how nice the owners are, the NFL will not give Indianapolis another game until they build their NEXT stadium. Does the staff of PFT know this simple fact of life about the NFL? They should. Heck, I do.
Red=at least 10 Super Bowls
Purply Blue=4-9 Super Bowls
Yellow=2-3 Super Bowls
Turquoise= 1 Super Bowl
Dollar Sign = NYC's 2014 Bowl
View Super Bowl Locations by # of Instances in a larger map
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