Last week was pretty much a disaster. Almost nothing went right. I tried to play too many situational spots without paying enough attention to the numbers. The KSU/WV game was a good example of it. For the rest of the games it was a week where the public crushed the books. And when that happens I usually lose.
As was pointed out by a poster in my thread last week, there were a large number of public dogs. Normally these aren’t great bets. But public dogs like Duke, NM, Michigan St, Indiana, KSU, Penn State and WF came through for their public backers. But I wouldn’t count on this same thing happening two weeks in a row. Vegas doesn’t like to lose. So be very careful this week. The lines are extra tight.
This Week: I won’t be playing any situational spots unless my numbers line up too. But I do like a hell of a lot of dogs this week. And most of them aren’t public dogs. A few games that I’m considering:
Texas/Kansas over 59: Face it, this year’s Texas is last year’s Baylor. They’ll have to outscore every opponent to win. I can see them covering this line. But I can also see them giving up 21+ points in the process.
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TCU +7.5: This line was immediately bet down from 9, but I think TCU is still an undervalued team this year. Even though TCU lost to ISU, which OSU easily defeated last week, the Frogs still have much better numbers than ISU on both sides of the ball. And I suspect now that TCU has their QB issues ironed out with Boykin (something they didn’t have vs ISU), ISU would have a lot of trouble getting the easy turnovers and beating this team again. OSU once again going through some QB issues with Walsh out for the season and Lunt now back in the fold. But he hasn’t played for several weeks. And still may not be 100%. When it comes to injuries, Gundy isn’t talking. The Pokes also lost one of their best WR’s to injury last week. So I don’t think this week is going to be nearly as easy as last week. TCU has a lot of fight left in them. And I like the way they came from way down in the closing minutes of their game with TT game to tie it up. I think they’ll take a lot of good out of that OT loss. TCU will have the better defense in this game and getting over a TD.
Kentucky +14: If I was looking blindly at just the numbers not knowing which teams are playing, I would have trouble deciding who has the advantage. Isn’t it about time we stopped going by name recognition with Mizzou and just call them what they really are? Not a very good team. And especially not a very good SEC team. Their slow developing QB read Utah offense isn’t going to work in the SEC. The defenses are simply too quick to alow this play to develop 5 yards deep in the backfield. Mizzou is getting eaten alive. Their only averaging a little over 13 ppg in conference play. And now they are expected to cover 2 TD’s. I know UK isn’t very good. But believe it or not they are the better offensive team in this game. And only 33 ypg seperate these defenses. Franklin still out for Missouri.
Kent State +13.5: This is one of those go with the go with games in which both teams are on a 5 game ATS run. But I almost always prefer the dogs when these kinds of hot spread teams meet. The Big East is just one tiny step up from the MAC. And KSU might very well be the best team in the MAC. I also like their rushing game. So this is going to be power on power. Rutgers is one of those kinds of teams with a high + TO margin, that just sits back and waits for other teams to make mistakes. Like Temple did last week. But Kent State is a better teams than Temple, and they also have a high + TO margin. So if Rutgers is going to cover against this spread, they’ll have to earn it the hard way.
Minnesota +3.5: Purdue coming off a crushing defeat and now have to travel again. Minnesota actually has the better overall numbers in this game. Especially on defense.
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Michigan +2.5: There are several games this week where if your not sure about the game because the numbers are close, just look at the coaching. And Michigan has a HUGE coaching advantage in this game. Pelini is on his way to another mediocre 8 win season with few memorable wins. His team is just too undisciplined (-9 TO margin). It almost cost them the game last week. And with facing a much better defense this week, I can see more turnover problems. The Huskers had the best possible scnerio last week coming off a bye week, and still couldn’t cover a 6 point spread. I don’t see where anything has changed. The better defense getting points.
Tennessee +14: With all of SC’s SEC East dreams pretty much shattered in the last two weeks I’m not sure if they’ll come out and play at the high level we saw 3 weeks ago against Georgia. Plus I think this team is dead tired emotionally and physically form playing 3 top 10 teams in a row. Tennessee still playing for a bowl birth and their coaches job. Although it’s probably too late for Dooley. In this game SC shouldn’t present quite as many offensive problems that Bama did last week.
A few others I’m looking at: NCST, Rice, South Alabama, Vandy, Ole Miss, Wash St, Miss St, Iowa, MSU, Kansas St, Navy, Auburn, Syracuse, Indiana