Texas Tech (+7.5) over Kansas State
I think this is a bit of a bad spot for KSU coming home after a big nationally televisied road game and now back to facing a real Big 12 opponent who is familiar with their game.. Both teams know each other well from last season’s gamein which TT had KSU on the ropes but let them off the hook because of 4 costly turnovers.
TT is a dangerous battle tested team who has already played and won two Big 12 road games in hostile environments. If they aren’t hungover from last week’s 3 OT game, I think they can give KSU a battle. QB Doege will present some different problems for KSU than they had last week against pocket passer Geno Smith. And I think this is a dangerous team to be giving more than a TD.
Like I said, if the rigors of Big 12 play has caught up with TT, then KSU will probably cover this spread. But I’m going to roll the dice and hope TT has one more game left in them. This is a big game for the Red Raiders. Lose this one and with 2 Big 12 losses are probably out of the running. So I think the Cats will get their best shot.
Okie State (-6.5) over TCU
This is a little bit of a borderline play for me. At the original number of 9 I had a lean to TCU because of their ability to score and possibly backdoor OSU here. But the line has come down and I bought a half point to get this line under a TD. This is mainly a situational play. TCU’s last trip out of Texas was against Kansas in which they won an error plagued 13 point game. Now they have to treavel out of Texas for only the second time this season against an offense that averages 600 ypg.
By far the best offense that TCU has faced this year. And it will come on the road after playing a triple OT game. The other Big 12 teams are much deeper and may be able to recover from a game like that, but TCU is a very thin team. Especially on defense. They can’t afford to play two games like that in a row. I think we’ll get our share of scoring out of the Frogs, but i don’t see them being able to stop OSU’s offense. Gundy has a phenomenal ATS record at home in these kinds of short spread games. And I think there is a decent chance it continues here.