Here are some of the games that we are considering betting on this week and a few reasons why we like a particular side or total. Please feel free to join in the discussion and offer your feedback, we would definitely like to hear about how you are viewing a particular side or total.
Just a reminder, these are only leans. Sometimes I will play this side, other times i will re-evaluate my lean and be on the complete other side. The leans are used to spur discussion and get some shared thoughts and opinions from everyone, so let me know your thoughts. I try and wait til a bit later in the week to make official plays (for injury, weather, coaching reasons), but every once in awhile, I will have some early plays I see value on.
I was talking with Jimmy about this one today. I think this is a great line for Clemson. I haven’t ran my system on the whole week yet, but this line is so skewed. I have Clemson winning this one by close to 20. Clemson has the advantage literally on every position. On top of that, I think national TV week games take out the “one team being more motivated than another” factor. Every 18-22 year old kid gets jacked to play on ESPN. Clemson know sthey need this one.
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Ole Miss +6.5
This should literally come as a surprise to no one that has remotely followed me, but I just don’t get this line. I’m trying not to be a homer but come on, Ole Miss is the better team, with a better coach. I think Arky is being overhyped after beating up on the worst 2 teams in the SEC and people still don’t get that the Rebels are good. Ole Miss should be favored by a TD here, but just for argument purposes, lets say by a FG bc they are away (still giving homefield too much value). That line to me is still about 10pts off. I’m waiting to see if it gets to 7.
Illinois is brutal. This game is brutal and I seriously hope I don’t find value on it because I don’t want to go through the pain of watching it/gamecasting it, but once again, the wrong team is favored. Indiana is battle tested and has played a good schedule. They’ve lost alot, which is troubling, but they’ve been in every single game.
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Vandy – 1,000,000
Come on. Mass is one of the WORST teams in the NCAA, if not the worst. They have players tweeting during halftime of game sthey get shut out. They are flat out awful, and playing an SEC team that actually has a good defense. Only issue is, can Vandy get some passing touchdowns? Rodgers is sporadic.
Miss St. +24
Nick Saban laughed in my face last week when I thought he wouldn’t cover the spread. This is the best D that Bama has seen, on paper. Miss St. still hasn’t played anyone. I think they need 14+ here to cover. Arky was +20 vs Bama, OM was +31, Mizzou +21, Tenn +19.5. Is Miss St. and playing at Bama make Miss St. worse than most of these teams? I don’t think so. Need to evaluate more though.
Texas A&M -14 / Okla -10
I know these are HUGE public plas, which I normally don’t put much warrant into, but you have to keep in mind, the book always wins over time so I am going to think more on these. I just don’t see how Auburn/ND scores here. It is really hard for me to back a team led by (insert either ND or Auburn’s QB here). They are both horrible. ND actually has a decent defense, but has not been tested through the air. Auburn….well, yeah.