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2012 College Football Week 7 Preview: Miami vs. North Carolina, Florida State vs. Boston College

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Well, at least the ACC made it until October this time with their National Championship aspirations intact.  Aside from FSU’s season killing loss on Saturday night in Raleigh, we also saw BC lose to winless Army, a supposedly resurgent Miami get trounced by Notre Dame and Virginia Tech get run off the field by a UNC squad with nothing to play for but pride.  The ACC:  Where Mediocrity Happens.

On the handicapping side, I turned in a 4-5 week that was very close to 6-3.  We had Maryland missing an extra point with 5 minutes to go that would have gotten us the cover (up 5, it was terrible football strategy to go for 1, but that’s beside the point).  Georgia Tech was actually up to start the 4th quarter but allowed 17 unanswered including a garbage time TD by Clemson instead of running out of the clock.  These kind of games will even out this season hopefully, but it’s been a bit frustrating.  I did have several solid victories with a low-scoring NC State affair, Miami’s continuing defensive struggles and a shootout in the BC-Army game.   As always, onward and upward..

YTD:  19-28  -25.19 units

Week 7 ACC card:

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**** North Carolina / Miami Over 68.5 -110
*** Florida St Seminoles -27.5 -108

Write-ups:

**** North Carolina / Miami Over 68.5 -110

Think this total is kept a little low by some inflated UNC defensive statistics; in 3 of their games they’ve allowed 0,0 and 6 points.  North Carolina has looked decent so far this year against a slate of teams suited to their strengths; nobody they’ve played can throw the football around like Ryan Williams and this Miami group can.  Carolina’s opponents are only throwing the ball 54% of the time (105th nationally) while Miami throws the ball 59% of the time (11th nationally).  In those limited attempts North Carolina has allowed 245 ypg and 62% completions so i expect Miami to be able to throw the football here.

And it’s likely that their going to need to. It’s just another brutal match-up for a Miami defense that is very young and really struggling with consistency.  Carolina runs a really up-tempo offense that takes advantage of thin defenses with a heavy play volume that limits opportunities to substitute players.  Miami brings up the rear in many major defensive categories (in bottom 20 nationally in yards a game, points a game, yards per play and 3rd down %, among others) and will struggle going against an elite offensive line thats protecting an accurate, smart QB with an absolute gamebreaker running the ball.  I just struggle to see Miami limiting this big play offense all day long.

What we have here is a North Carolina team coming off a big win traveling down to Miami in a bounceback spot (at 3-0 in ACC play, the coastal division is in their hands).  Larry Fedora has already shown to be a coach who likes to score points in bunches once his teams gain a schematic advantage (7 of 12 halfs this year have seen the Heels score 20 or more points) and their offense has the balance to really keep this Miami defense guessing.  I look for both teams to move the ball well here and this has all the makings of a shootout.  I also feel UNC covers the number here.  Carolina 47, Miami 37

*** Florida St Seminoles -27.5 -108

I’ve used this BC team for a lot of overs this year as I’ve liked their match-ups, but I’m getting off that train in Tallahassee.  FSU is an awful match-up for many teams but for a BC team that is really bad in the trenches (yards per carry for – against = -2.3, last in ACC) they are going to have a hard time doing anything up front.  Boston just doesn’t have the athletes on the edges to consistently make any plays for or against these FSU skill players.   It’s also worth a thought that this BC team could lay down for a lame duck coach in a season going nowhere.  Talent wise, this may be the biggest discrepancy in the entire league.

Here I look for a bounce-back effort from an FSU team that is now on a 0-3 ATS run and will be stressing to FINISH here after letting a 16 point lead slip away in Raleigh.  Florida St feasts on a really bad and one-dimensional BC offensive line and Rettig just isn’t mobile enough to make plays with his feet against a swarming FSU front.  Seminole ground game should be able to run downhill all day which will keep the points coming long after the game is decided.  This one should wind up like the Wake Forest game here.  Noles 52  Eagles 10

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