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2012 College Football Week 5 Preview: Clemson vs. Boston College

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Zero for seven last week.  Living it was bad enough, I dont want to rehash it.  Lets just call Week 5 the first week of the redemption tour.   Moving on..

Week 5 ACC Card:

**** Clemson / Boston College Over 59.5 -110

I like were getting some line value with the over here due to the recent history between these teams (7 meetings as ACC foes, only 1 match-up going over 50).  The fact is that this isn’t the BC team that we all grew to know and tolerate; they are no longer a defense-first team with a strong ground game.  Actually the defense looks like it might be REALLY bad as Miami and NW both gashed them on the ground for 208 and 293 yards and their inexperienced QB’s combined to complete 68.4% of their passes.  

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Now they come home off their bye to play a prolific Clemson offense that is going to run a ton of plays and really test what looks to be a really thin BC defense.  Clemson should get plenty of room up front for Ellington and Co to operate, and they have a massive edge against this BC secondary that just doesn’t have many good athletes.  Unless Boyd has an absolute stinker, Clemson will consistently move the football.

So why not just play on Clemson?  For one, it’s a tough spot to bounce back from that blown lead for a road trip as a DD favorite in a division game.   I also don’t have any faith in Clemson’s defense, in all 4 games this year their opponent has moved the ball on them (allowing 6.4 yards per play).  

They still appear to be struggling with DC Venables new system, and are having issues with blowing assignments.  BC doesn’t have great athletes but they are likely getting at least 1 key WR back (Bobby Swigert and possibly Colin Lammond) which should supplement the solid start to the year for Chase Rettig.  BC can’t run the football, only 43% of their plays so far have been runs and they’ve only gone for 3 ypc (2.3 ypc vs Miami and NW).  BC will want to run the ball, but if Clemson takes it away they’ve shown their willing to let Rettig fling it around 40-50 times and let the passing game move the football.

It’s going to be tough for BC to get stops this week, their defense isn’t very big or fast and is facing a Clemson offense that is a terrible match-up for them.  BC does catch them in good spot as they are coming off a bye and Clemson is coming off that tough loss in Tallahassee with a big revenge game against GT on deck.  I just see both passing games having an advantage here, and I think the number came out a little short.  Clemson 38-Boston 31 in a fun one.

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