2012 College Football Week 11 Prediction: Virginia vs. North Carolina

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In week 10 I easily hit my first 5 unit play of the season (UVA +14), and this week  there are two games that I really like just as much.  Week 10 was a disappointing one overall as my other ACC plays struggled, but a very strong week for my spreadsheet plays saved me.  Overall I went 5-6 to lose a few units, but all in all I was pretty happy with my process.  Looking forward to a very strong Week 11 in the ACC.

37-43 -20.16 units

Like last week I played several games immediately at the opening numbers.  I tweeted them as soon as I played them, but it’s a slower process to get them posted here.  Some of the lines have moved against me, and some are actually available at better prices currently.  I will update my playlist as I add plays, and will post write-ups when I have time available.  Good luck guys!

Week 11 ACC Football Card:

***** Virgina Cavaliers +3 -110
***** North Carolina Tar Heels -5.5 -110
**** Texas A&M Aggies +16 -110
*** NC State Wolfpack -7 -120
*** Florida State Seminoles -12 -110
*** Notre Dame Fighting Irish -20 -110
*** Oklahoma State Cowboys  -8 -110

*** Oregon St Beavers +5 -116
*** BYU Cougars -37 -110

I could possibly buy back some on a few of  these original plays, these were grabs based on my #’s versus the books.  I will update them here if/when I do.

Week 11 Write-ups

***** Virginia Cavaliers +3 -110

Going for another 5-unit play on Virginia this week, there my top play-on team right now and their going against my #1 fade team in Miami.  Last week we saw UVA finally put a whole game together, as they were able to limit the turnovers and special teams mistakes that have spoiled their season thus far.  The offense continued to move the ball (they’ve outgained their last 5 opponents) and the defense was finally able to force some turnovers of their own.  It helped that NC State was absurdly flat, but UVA was a team that appeared to use the bye week well as they were very focused.

The most positive sign from this game was that they finally found some traction with the running game.  All year they’ve really struggled to replicate last years ground success even with the same backfield, but the blocking looked really last week as they went for nearly 250 yards and 5.2 yards per carry against what was a top 30 run d.  UVA came out of that game pretty healthy and is going against a Miami defense that appears to be improving if your judging final scores but is still struggling (ranked 118th nationally in total defense in October) and has really been prone to really struggling against teams who run the ball well.  I think UVA has found  something with their ground game, and I look for UVA to be very successful at establishing the ground game and keeping a Miami defense that tends to overreact off balance with some playaction.

UVA really struggled early on in the season to get results, but they do too many things well to be counted out down the stretch run.  They showed last week that they aren’t quitting on this year and now come home to play a Miami team that had lost 3 straight before VT’s dysfunctional offense sputtered last week.  They are still in contention for bowl eligibility and have plenty to play for.  Virginia +3 didn’t last long, but I would recommend UVA as a play all the way to -3.  Virginia 34, Miami 24.

***** North Carolina Tar Heels -5.5 -110

Georgia Tech caught a dream match-up last week against Maryland team that was insanely beat up (that I foolishly backed), but I think we get back to reality this week.  The reality that I speak of here is a defense that has given up 40+ points in 4 of the last 6 games and often looks completely lost out there.  This  is a nightmare match-up for that defense as their going up against a UNC offense that is very explosive (8th nationally in 30+ yard plays) and likes to run a ton of no-huddle to keep the defense off balance.  UNC has a great offensive balance in that they have a smart, accurate QB to accompany college football’s best kept secret, running back Giovanni Bernard.

The option offense can be problematic for opposing defenses in that it requires more defensive assignment football than most match-ups do.  UNC, who ranks 16th nationally in FBS games with 3.28 ypc allowed, is in a pretty good spot to play well.  Paul Johnson doesn’t think an extra week of preparation matters against his defense, but I beg to disagree with him.  There’s a reason that they’ve struggle so badly in bowl games.  UNC’s biggest defensive weakness is in the secondary, and though they struggled defending the pass in their early season match-up last year, GT doesn’t really have any gamebreakers in the passing game that can hit you for big plays (Jackets averaging nearly a yard less per pass attempt than in 2011).

My only concern here is that UNC doesn’t have much to play for here with no postseason possibilities.  I’m not too worried about that though because they haven’t let that effect their effort all season.  The extra week off also should alleviate any concerns of a letdown following their epic win over arch-rival NC State.  I made this game UNC -13 so it’s a ton of value at the opening number.  North Carolina is a bad match-up for Georgia Tech, and should be able to move the ball at will.  I would still play this game at any number below 10.  37-24 North Carolina

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