Last week was tough, as I knew it was going to be for me. I didn’t like too many spots and may have forced a play or two that I wasn’t totally thrilled about. This week seems to be shaping up much better for me and like some of the spots I’m in. I attempted Pezgordo’s method and jumped on some early lines. I posted some of them via twitter, but the only write-ups you will see on here are lines that are available currently.
2* Units: BYU +7.5 vs. Boise State
Week 1: 5-3 +3.5* units , Week 2: 6-2 +10* units, Week 3: 3-3, -.5* units
Overall: 14-8 + 13* Units
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2* Units: BYU +7.5 vs. Boise State
Doesn’t get better than a Thursday night game on the blue turf. Boise St is coming off a commanding win vs. lowly Miami from the MAC and BYU is coming off a tough loss against rival Utah. I think this game sets up well for lots of reasons.
BYU is led by Riley Nelson, in what seems like his like 8th year as QB of this team. Although he’s not the most accurate passer, he certainly isn’t bad and he’s a competitor and can will this team to victory on any given night. Riley will be going up against the Boise defense that has been decent, but nothing special. They held Michigan St to 17 points, but that was with St debuting a new QB and they basically just ran the ball. This BYU offense has been able to score. I think it will be very important for them to establish their run game. The environment in this stadium is going to be electric, especially since they have expanded the size. If they can establish their run and slow this game down and get first downs (they are converting 47% of 3rd downs compared to Boist St. defense allowing a 50% conversion rate, ranking them pretty badly in the NCAA). I think that BYU, led by their experienced QB, can get some scores on the road here.
On the other side, Boise seems to have found a decent replacement for Kellen Moore. Joe Southwick finally found some rhythm last week against Miami of Ohio. I think having a new QB playing in a home, night game in front of a wild crowd, may cause a bit of nervousness. I expect Boise to get him some small completions and hand the ball off to DJ Harper a bit to help get the rhythm going. BYUs goal on defense is going to be to get in the backfield, which they have done a pretty solid job of thus far this season. They rank 5th in the nation in Sacks per game and 7th in tackles for loss per game. Boise has done a good job of limiting sacks, but if BYU can get to Southwick, that will be a total game changer. Big plays on the BYU end will quiet this crowd and allow BYU to execute.
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When it comes down to it, this is a rivalry game and I think 7.5 points is too much to give a mature team with a mature QB. Boise has struggled in the red zone to score at all, but especially touchdowns. If that continues, they are in trouble. BYU needs to limit the big plays.
I have these two teams pretty similar statistically with BYU actually the favorite, but with Boise being on the blue turf and having a slightly better coach, the favor swings to their end and I think they probably take this one. I would not be surprised if BYU won straight up though.
Reasons for smaller unit size and not taking BYU moneyline:
Boise kills it at home. BYU had to travel Sat night/Sunday morning while Boise was home. Talked about this last week, the extra day of rest is huge.
Boise St 30, BYU 27
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