Well for the first time in 7 weeks TSE didn’t have a winning week on the site. But thanks to a fine week by our ACC capper jimmyshivers, we managed to go 19-19. We certainly had our share of bad beats this week. The FSU – Va Tech total, Penn State and Ole Miss were tough losses, but there will be “bad luck” weeks throughout the season. Unfortunately luck, good and bad, plays a much larger part in winning than anyone of us would like to admit.
Purdue – Illinois U 51
The Illini offense is hapless. They are the worst offense in the Big 10 averaging 278 ypg and in conference play they have scored 7, 14, 0, 17, 22 & 3 (10.5 ppg). Defensively they aren’t much better ranking 9th in ypg allowed. However at home they are only allowing 26.77 ppg in Big 10 play and they held both Indiana and Minnesota under their offensive season avg. The Boilers are only avg 18.83 ppg in Big 10 play and have scored no more than 28 points in a single conference game.
Iowa State – Kansas U 48
I watched Kansas last week against Texas Tech and came away a little bit impressed. They actually played pretty solid D and they can run the hell out of the ball. Based on my run numbers I actually have Iowa State’s run D ranked a little higher than Texas Tech’s. It is the Cyclone pass D that is not doing very well. With KU’s inability to throw the football (they rank last in the Big 12), hopefully this is a good match-up for their defense. Statistically these are the two worst offenses in the Big 12 with the two worst pass efficiency QBs (by far) in the league.
North Carolina State +17
This number kind of stood out to me. Clemson has been rolling up offensive numbers and has been a covering machine all year, but the Wolfpack should be able to move the ball on them. Statistically we have two defenses that are more or less even.
Ducks are hurting big time on defense, especially along the DL. The Cardinal are really physical on offense and will test the young duckling DL, which could lead to some long, sustained drives. New Stanford QB Hogan definitely looks like an improvement over Nunes at the position, and the Ducks are also hurting in the secondary. So much so that they are considering using the Black Mamba at cornerback this week. I don’t know that anyone can stop the Oregon offensive Death Star, but the Cardinal front seven is by far the best Oregon will see all season, so it should at the very least be able to slow it down …. a little.
Washington – Colorado U 55
The game is currently lined at 54.5, but I won’t take it for anything less than 55. Yeah my “only one team will score” theory didn’t workout last week as far as Colorado and Arizona were concerned, however, I didn’t realize how bad the Arizona defense was. They looked like the Colorado D, only in different uniforms. UW on the other hand has a legitimate defense. Also, the UCLA-CU total was lined at 59 (and went under 42-14). UW has nowhere near as explosive an offense as UCLA, but the UW defense is every bit as good (if not better) than the Bruins.
The Devils should become bowl eligible this week as I doubt they have much trouble with the Cougs in Tempe. Last weeks UCLA – WSU final was pretty misleading as the Bruins held a 44-14 lead before taking their foot off the pedal. After 4 straight defeats to ranked teams, I doubt ASU will be as benevolent. With their big rivalry game coming up against Arizona, ASU needs to lock in that 6th win to become bowl eligible and I got to think they know this is their best chance to get it.