First off, I’d like to apologies for everyone that commented a question, or tweeted a question to me last week. I was displaced from society in the Caribbean for the week, as well as dealing with apartment flooding issues in NYC. Before I get to my Week 11 College Football Picks, just a little bit of insight I thought about while drinking “Painkillers” on the beach.
What makes this site so great, and different from every other site out there (in my opinion) is the open lines of communication. Numerous people have asked me how I learned so much about this “industry”/”hobby”, and how I got successful (all relative).
I read. There are TONS of forums, websites, tweets, books, and people you can utilize to learn. Along the way this season, I have even learned from peers that have commented and followed MY plays all season. There are so many variables that play into this game, the hardest thing to do is sift through the noise.
With that being said — another great week last week. On vacation, not getting as much time to look at all of the lines, I went 5-2, +6* units.
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I came into the season wanting to hit 60% and be up 60 units after the regular season. Right now I am sitting at 70%+ and 60 units +. I could call it quits right now and hit those goals, but this is honestly the part of the season where I start to do better. Games become more situational, lines usually become tighter.
Week 1: 5-3 +4.5u , Week 2: 6-2 +10 u, Week 3: 3-3, -.5u, Week 4: 5-2, +6.5u
Week 5: 4-2, +5.5u, Week 6: 7-2, +9u, Week 7: 5-2, +4.5u, Week 8: 6-3, +6* units
Week 9: 7-0, +14* units, Week 10: 5-2, +6* units
Popular VideoThis young teenage singer was shocked when Keith Urban invited her on stage at his concert. A few moments later, he made her wildest dreams come true:
Overall: 53-21 + 65.5* Units
71.6%, 6.5* units/wk
Week 11 Picks
4* Units, Tulane -1.5 vs Memphis
3.5* Units, Florida St -13.5 vs Va Tech
3.5* Units, Florida St -13.5 vs Va Tech
FSU coming off of a bye week last weekend, and Va Tech coming off of a brutal loss at Miami. They had a tough road trip, dropping the previous one at Clemson as well.
I believe if you were born in a vacuum this year, this line would make no sense to you. Va Tech has really not shown us much this year, and I still believe FSU is a National Title caliber team. Sure they dropped a game they shouldn’t have. Look at the rest of their season.
Their average margin in every game this season is 32 points. Thats stupid. Against good FBS teams, its 25 points. They are THE best team in the nation not only on 1st down defense, but also 3rd down defense. They get to the QB, they cause turnovers, they defend the pass well.
Logan Thomas and VT have underachieved, or have they? Coming into this year, LT was supposed to be on pace with Barkley in the draft. I don’t know if he makes the Top 8 QBs I’d draft. They lost David Wilson. They have injuries. Their offense just can’t seem to put things together against remotely decent defenses.
I think LT and the VT O get eaten up here. They won’t be able to set up play action. I don’t see them being able to run AT ALL. Logan Thomas has a cannon but he has no touch, which is not good against this defense.
Finally, the Correlation, the Score and the Coach matrix all favor FSU, and big here. I have the score being around a 21 point spread. In the correlation, overall they are nearly twice as good as VT and rank as one of the best in the nation, and in the Top 5, they crush VT. And in coaching, I hate to say this (not really actually) but I think Beamer’s time is coming. FSU has the nod here as well.
Why isn’t this play bigger? Super Bowl effect at home. Every team wants to beat one of the best teams in the nation, in a marquee night home game. I think VT needs atleast 23 here to cover this and they’ve only done that against Austin Peay, BGSU, UNC and Duke. Defenses that rank 105, 56, 43 and 95. Here they are facing numero uno.
Home game or not for VT, FSU still believes they are playing for not only an ACC championship, but a BCS birth and under crazy circumstances, a NC game. Players come to play under the lights on National TV, and FSU has them. They crush Va Tech here and I expect the stadium to be empty and the students to be at Oak Lane and the Bars by halftime.
FSU 38, Va Tech 13
4* Units, Tulane -1.5 vs Memphis
Crazy how things come full circle, huh? Week 4, 5, and 6 I faded Tulane and I’m up 11* units on them. This week, I’m on them, and pretty big. This is a more verbose analysis, but should lead some color in how to adjust systems as the season goes on.
Tulane played in those 3 weeks without the backbone of their team, 4 year starting QB Ryan Griffin. Their backups were also a mess and they were playing dudes off of the baseball squad. It made a huge difference, as their offense couldn’t get anything done. When your offense can’t get anything done, your defense gets tired, and therefore gets exposed. It all becomes a shitshow.
For a quick recap, I have 3 systems that lead to my plays: A score projection matrix, a correlation matrix, and a coaching matrix. Depending on how much aligns, my play size will fluctuate. When I run the numbers on this game, unadjusted, Tulane is still favored to win by 6 in the score projection. They are better in the correlation matrix, and barely behind in the Coaching matrix. These numbers are gathered from the whole season, including the 4 games without RG.
For intensive purposes, lets compare Tulane with and without Ryan Griffin this season.
WithoutWithRZ %12.5086.673D %25.1446.63PPG8.2532.20PY PG162.00372.20RY PG16.2555.60Combined Opp. Record0.660.42
It is clear how much he impacts this team. Even if they were playing a weaker schedule, he is a HUGE upgrade for them. I am typically a believer that injuries don’t have as much of an impact as you think, but this is clearcut.
So with the system stats calculating using the full season, Tulane is viewed with a negative trend. They are not as bad as they seem, or as the system seems. Their RZ% for the season is 76%, 10% lower than with Griffin. Their 3D% is 36% compared to 46% w/ RGnot3. PPG is 21.56, here its 32.2. PYPG average 278, here 372. It goes on and on.
Memphis on the other hand is still bad. They are WAY worse than the Green Wave in the correlation matrix. In the top 5 stats they rank 100, 114, 99, 112, and 48. They are terrible at picking up 3rd downs, they really don’t do well in the RZ, and they turn the ball over ALL the time. This will be the worst team that Tulane has played to date.
Even though Tulane is nothing special on defense, Memphis is that bad on offense. There’s lots of talk about Bama vs a NFL team (which I think is personally stupid), but I think if you take the All-Star team from my HS conference (GCL – Ohio), give them a week of practice, and they could beat Memphis. I think Memphis gets a bit over 20 points here and just won’t be able to keep up with RGnot3. Tulane also has 2 good RB and a group of talented receivers to help RG and just outmatch Memphis on that side of the ball.
It’s a night game and players get pumped. Playmakers show up. RG is one of them. This one could scare us early, but Ryan Griffin is a 4 year starter and when he gets it going, he won’t stop, and Memphis can’t keep up.
Tulane 41, Memphis 28