Back to back fight weekends, again? I must’ve died and gone to MMA Heaven. Tis such a place, I assure you. But, if all goes according to plan, this is what the future will entail.
Excited? Yeah, you are.
To recap last weekend’s UFC 133 event, I went a measly 7-4 (thought the Ortiz pick was despite me KNOWING Evans would win). I say measly because I’ve been used to straight killing it. Still, at 7-4 my overall has been raised to 101-61. So technically my “baseball year” is over, and I eclipsed the “100 win” mark. History, ladies and gentlemen. History.
Now, onto this card. For some reason it slipped my mind, but it’s a pleasant surprise. This event, for being free, is pretty stacked, with tough calls throughout the card. Be sure to check out the prelims on Facebook, because there are some really good bouts taking place before the show goes live on Versus. Especially that Benavidez/Wineland fight.
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For those of you who don’t know, the favorite will have a negative (-) number, while the underdog will have a positive (+) number. MMA money lines are based on units of $100. If the favorite is -225, it means that you have to wager $225 to win $100. But if you are betting on the underdog, the formula is different. If the underdog is at +185, it means that if you wager $100 you will win $185 for a total of $285. Easy enough, right? Good.
If you guys are going to bet, head over to Bodog.com. As always, I appreciate half of your earnings.
Bantamweight Bout: Edwin Figueroa (-350) vs. Jason Reinhardt (+265)
This fight could go either way, despite the betting line. Reinhardt is a wild man and has more experience, but I believe Figueroa will be able to keep his distance, and after he wears him down, close in and eventually lock in a choke.
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My Pick: Figueroa, Round 2, Submission
Lightweight Bout: Jacob Volkmann (+105) vs. Danny Castillo (-135)
Volkmann is going to have a hard time dealing with Castillo’s strength. When Castillo gets in close he’ll be able to damage Vokmann and muscle him around the cage. By the third round Volkmann will be too tired to block everything.
My Pick: Castillo, Round 3, (T)KO
Lightweight Bout: Cole Miller (-500) vs. T.J. O’Brien (+325)
Miller is just an all around better fighter. I, for once, agree with the crazy betting line. Miller will pick O’Brien apart from the outside for the full 15 minutes.
My Pick: Miller, Round 3, Decision
Featherweight bout: Alex Caceres (+300) vs. Jimy Hettes (-400)
Caceres is the better striker of the two, but for some reason he has yet to learn defense against submissions. It’s almost as if he’s tapping as soon as a submission hold is being applied. And that’s a problem because he’s going against a submission wizard. Hettes is 8-0 with 8 submission wins, 6 of those in the first round.
My Pick: Hettes, Round 2, Submission
Light Heavyweight Bout: Karlos Vemola (-205) vs. Ronny Markes (+165)
This fight is ending in the first round for sure. Both of these guys are beast and are going to go at it. I think Markes will land the necessary shots to make Vemola cover up, giving Markes the opportunity to look for a submission.
My Pick: Markes, Round 1, Submission
Middleweight Bout: Ed Herman (+145) vs. Kyle Noke (-175)
Both of these guys have a good wrestling base, but Noke’s striking is twice as good as Herman’s. If Herman can’t find a way to deal with Noke’s strength advantage, he’ll lose going away.
My Pick: Noke, Round 3, Decision
Bantamweight Bout: Joseph Benavidez (-300) vs. Eddie Wineland (+230)
I’m wanting to pick Wineland because he looked pretty good in his loss to Urijah Faber. But Benavidez has only lost to Dominick Cruz in his career. Wineland isn’t as good as Cruz so I’m sure Benavidez will be able to get in and out and get some takedowns to get the judges decision.
My Pick: Benavidez, Round 3, Decision
Middleweight bout: C.B. Dollaway (-270) vs. Jared Hamman (+210)
Plain and simple, I’m going with the stronger fighter here. Dollaway will be able to control Hamman fairly easily. It probably won’t be pretty at first, but he’ll get some vicious shots in, causing the ref to stop it.
My Pick: Dollaway, Round 2, (T)KO
Welterweight Bout: Amir Sadollah (-325) vs. Duane Ludwig (+250)
Outside of a big shot, I don’t see Ludwig getting his hand raised. Sadollah’s Muay Thai striking has looked better and better each time he steps into the Octagon. He fights in an aggressive Muay Thai stance, but that’ll suit him just fine going against Ludwig.
My Pick: Sadollah, Round 3, Decision
Lightweight Bout: Charles Oliveira (-130) vs. Donald Cerrone (EVEN)
Cerrone is not going to be stupid and take this fight to the ground, nor is he going to let Oliveira in close enough to able to try to pull guard. If we are talking a pure striking match, Cerrone is going to win. He’s too mean and will take a shot to give one. But when he hits, he hurts.
My Pick: Cerrone, Round 3, Decision
Lightweight Bout: Jim Miller (-175) vs. Ben Henderson (+145)
This is such a tough call. I’m a Miller fan and I believe he should have gotten a title shot two fights ago. And now he has to fight a fighter that could derail his chances. A fighter that I believe will. While Miller is the better fighter all around, I think Henderson’s ability to fight the last minute just like the first will do wonders, allowing him to get some takedowns, which always looks good to judges.
My Pick: Henderson, Round 3, Decision
Welterweight Bout: Dan Hardy (EVEN) vs. Chris Lytle (-130)
So Lytle says he’s not going to pull a “Anthony Johnson” and actually fight fire with fire. Not wise. If he was smart he would take Hardy down and use his submission game to take on the Brit. But he’s not. And while Lytle can knockout anyone at 170lbs, he’s giving up speed and power to Hardy.
My Pick: Hardy, Round 1, (T)KO