Strikeforce Analysis: Fedor vs. Henderson Preview, Odds

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While the prospects of many more Strikeforce cards are grim at best, this is an event full of great match-ups that could certainly live on in memory.  For a bettor, this is a tricky card and one that takes careful consideration, so below is my comparison betting odds to this fight, as well as some props to pump up your bets.

So let’s see if we can’t find some value and pay for our damn Showtime subscription this month.

Fedor Emelianenko -150

Dan Henderson +120

Props: None

Fights like this make me happy I don’t do full on prediction articles anymore (good luck Josh!) because there are so many facets to this. Will Fedor’s first “weight cut” affect him? Can his power overcome Henderson? Can Henderson match speed with Fedor?  This is a close fight no matter how you slice it, as both men have crippling power, and you can’t put money down with any real confidence here.  Just use my comparison odds and hope for the best, as no one knows how this fight pans out.

Marloes Coenen -160

Miesha Tate +130

Props:  Tate by Decision

One of the toughest fighters at 135lbs, Marloes Coenen will once again defend her belt, facing long-time female terror in Miesha Tate.  While Coenen has been thrown around at this weight due to her lack of wrestling, her bottom game submissions have proven to be her saving grace in her last two bouts.  The question is, can Tate work the same game plans as Kaufman and Carmouche, but make it to the final bell without being submitted?  I don’t think this fight plays out much like the previous two, as Tate isn’t one of the monster females dropping down to 135lbs.  While her wrestling might be slightly better than some of the others, Coenen has been working on stuffing takedowns, and should have a chance to work her sharp kickboxing skills.  With that said, I think the best bang for your buck here may be a Tate decision prop, as Coenen’s finish is completely up in the air, while Tate can only really take a decision here.

Tim Kennedy -120

Robbie Lawler -120

Props: Fight Goes Distance

This is one of the most exciting, but least talked about fights on the MMA horizon, as both men are pure warriors and always down to scrap.  Kennedy is one of the most improved fighters in the last couple of years, but faces a stiff test against the hard hitting and gritty Robbie Lawler.  This fight could pan out in a lot of different ways, as Kennedy has the potential to out-wrestle Lawler, or end up stuck on his feet against a ferocious power-puncher.  Betting straight up would be a mistake here in my mind, but I do like the prop that this fight goes the distance.  Neither guy is likely to finish the other, but with their combined KO/Submission margins, it could manufacture a juicy line.

Tyron Woodley -240

Paul Daley +180

Props: None

It’s not for a title, but you can bet both men here are looking to make a statement.  Woodley has looked anywhere from unstoppable to overrated depending on opposition, but with Daley’s utter lack of grappling ability, this one should be a predictable bout.  Daley has a few openings to get something going here, and I don’t see him being able to land on Woodley before finding himself planted on the canvas.  This one won’t make it out of the first round, as Woodley locks on the arm triangle for the tap late in the round.

Tarec Saffiedine -150

Scott Smith +120

Props: Saffiedine by Decision, Smith by KO

Win or lose, Scott Smith is both the classiest and most rugged fighter on the planet, and will make this one a “can’t miss” bout.  This is a tricky fight to call, as Saffiedine is the complete opposite of Smith in all things and will need to run and gun this entire fight to pull it off.  The kicker for me here is that Smith tends to be dazed by volume punchers, sending him into defensive mode and keeping his deadly hands up near his head.  While Smith could finish this with one shot, Saffiedine’s ability to cut angles and attack constantly make this a fight he can win if he stays safe.   Look for an arb opportunity here, as a Smith KO combined with the Over or Saffiedine via Decision could make your night.

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