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MMA Preview: Court McGee vs. Constantinos Philippou at UFC on FX 2

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Below we’ve measured each fighter’s performance in major fights over the last 5 years and each fighter’s probability of winning this match up based on (uber nerdy) statistical analysis.

After the stats, I’ll talk about any wagers I’ll be making.

Click for all UFC on FX 2 breakdowns.

[Ed. Note: Get more great stuff over at Breakdown Fights]

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Betting Strategy:

Court McGee

Pick to win: Court McGee by Submission

The numbers (and the odds) say this is a close match up.

Constantinos Philippou has the statistical edge in striking, mostly based on his heavy-hands. Philippou has delivered a HUGE 9.0 knockdowns + knockouts per hour compared to zero for McGee.

McGee has the strong statistical edge in grappling. His 15.4 takedowns, 17.1 passes, and 3.4 submissions per hour are all in the top 10% of all fighters we track.

Other factors: Philippou has faced a tougher average level of competition (advantage Philippou). McGee will have a 3″ reach advantage, which is a hair significant.

Putting it all together, the math gives a super slight edge to McGee for the win (54%).

. . . . .

Pick to bet: possibly Court McGee

The current moneyline on McGee is -124 (= 55% chance of winning, $100 pays $81).

Based on the numbers, I think the current line is spot on. I’ll continue to watch the odds and wager on McGee assuming they don’t get much longer from here.

Click for all UFC on FX 2 breakdowns.

Mike the Geek

Understanding the Stats:

Data only includes fights from the last 5 years with stats in the Fight Metric database. That means fights in smaller organizations are ignored.

Results are color-coded by how the fighter compares to other fighters in the database: the darker the green the better, the darker the red the worse. High numbers are good in the fighter’s column, low numbers are good in the fighter’s opponents column.

The “probability of win” (top of stats) is based on analysis of the stats that matter the most in determining who wins fights, and is the most important thing I look at when deciding how to wager on a fight (read more).

The “level of competition” (bottom of stats) captures how difficult the fighter’s opponents have been by showing the total 5-year W/L record of opponents at the time they fought. It’s easy to rack up sexy stats when you fight goofs (and vice-versa) so stats should be viewed with the level of competition in mind (read more).

Click to read more FAQs about understanding these stats.

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Get more great MMA news and analysis over at Breakdown Fights.