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MMA Analysis: Tim Boetsch vs. Yushin Okami at UFC 144

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Below we’ve measured each fighter’s performance in major fights over the last 5 years and each fighter’s probability of winning this match up based on (uber nerdy) statistical analysis.

After the stats, I’ll talk about any wagers I’ll be making.

Click for all UFC 144 breakdowns.

[Ed. Note: Get more great analysis over at Breakdown Fights]

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Betting Strategy:

Yushin Okami

Pick to win: Yushin Okami by Decision

Okami and Boetsch have turned in similar stats and neither shows a strong edge in either striking or grappling.

But Okami gets the nod in this fight because, even though the stats are similar, Okami’s numbers are from facing a much tougher level of competition than Boetsch’s (ex. Anderson Silva, Mark Munoz, and Chael Sonnen).

I’ve heard a lot of talk about Boetsch’s heavy-hands being a factor, but the numbers don’t support that. He’s delivered just 2.2 knockdowns + knockouts per hour (compared to 2.4 for Okami)

Other factors: Boetsch will have a 1″ reach advantage, but that’s insignificant. Okami fights southpaw and Boetsch orthodox (advantage Okami, read why).

Putting it all together the math gives Okami the edge for the win (61%).

. . . . .

Pick to bet: neither fighter

The current moneyline on Okami is -305 (= 75% chance of winning, $100 pays $33).

Okami’s chance of winning this bout are already baked in to the odds and I’ll be sitting on the sidelines for this one.

Click for all UFC 144 breakdowns.

. . . . .

Understanding the Stats:

Data only includes fights from the last 5 years with stats in the Fight Metric database. That means fights in smaller organizations are ignored.

Results are color-coded by how the fighter compares to all other fighters in the database: the darker the green the better, the darker the red the worse. High numbers are good in the fighter’s column, low numbers are good in the fighter’s opponents column.

The “probability of win” (top of stats) is based on analysis of the stats that matter the most in determining who wins fights, and is the most important thing I look at when deciding how to wager on a fight (read more).

The “level of competition” (bottom of stats) captures how difficult the fighter’s opponents have been by showing the total 5-year W/L record of opponents at the time they fought. It’s easy to rack up sexy stats when you fight goofs (and vice-versa) so stats should be viewed with the level of competition in mind (read more).

Click to read more FAQs about understanding these stats.

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Get more great MMA news and analysis over at Breakdown Fights.