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MMA Analysis: Thiago Alves vs. Martin Kampmann at UFC on FX 2

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Below we’ve measured each fighter’s performance in major fights over the last 5 years and each fighter’s probability of winning this match up based on (uber nerdy) statistical analysis.

After the stats, I’ll talk about any wagers I’ll be making.

Click for all UFC on FX 2 breakdowns.

[Ed. Note: Get more great stuff over at Breakdown Fights]

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Betting Strategy:

Thiago Alves

Pick to win: Thiago Alves by KO/TKO

The numbers (and the odds) say this fight is super close.

Thiago Alves has the slight advantage in striking. Both fighters have landed a similar number of strikes and been about equally efficient, but Alves takes the edge based on having heavier hands and showing a better chin (example: Alves has delivered 5.0 knockdowns + knockouts per hour vs 2.6 for Kampmann).

Neither fighter’s grappling has impressed but Kampmann has definitely been “less bad”.

Other factors: Alves’ stats are based on facing a tougher level of competition (advantage Alves). Kampmann will have a 2″ reach advantage, but that is insignificant.

Putting it all together, the math gives Alves a slight edge for the win (53%).

. . . . .

Pick to bet: possibly Thiago Alves, but not yet

The current moneyline on Alves is -127 (=56% chance of winning, $100 pays $79).

Alves’ chance of winning this bout are already baked in to the odds. I’ll continue to watch the line and bet on Alves if he gets down to about -110, otherwise I’ll be sitting on the sidelines for this one.

Click for all UFC on FX 2 breakdowns.

Mike the Geek

Understanding the Stats:

Data only includes fights from the last 5 years with stats in the Fight Metric database. That means fights in smaller organizations are ignored.

Results are color-coded by how the fighter compares to other fighters in the database: the darker the green the better, the darker the red the worse. High numbers are good in the fighter’s column, low numbers are good in the fighter’s opponents column.

The “probability of win” (top of stats) is based on analysis of the stats that matter the most in determining who wins fights, and is the most important thing I look at when deciding how to wager on a fight (read more).

The “level of competition” (bottom of stats) captures how difficult the fighter’s opponents have been by showing the total 5-year W/L record of opponents at the time they fought. It’s easy to rack up sexy stats when you fight goofs (and vice-versa) so stats should be viewed with the level of competition in mind (read more).

Click to read more FAQs about understanding these stats.

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Get more great MMA news and analysis over at Breakdown Fights.