MMA Analysis: Ryan Bader vs. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson at UFC 144

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Below we’ve measured each fighter’s performance in major fights over the last 5 years and each fighter’s probability of winning this match up based on (uber nerdy) statistical analysis.

After the stats, I’ll talk about any wagers I’ll be making.

Click for all UFC 144 breakdowns.

[Ed. Note: Get more great analysis over at Breakdown Fights]

Betting Strategy:

Quinton Jackson

Pick to win: neither fighter (50/50%)

The numbers say this is a much closer fight than the betting odds are predicting.

Ryan Bader has outperformed Rampage by almost every stat we track (especially grappling), but balance that with the fact that Rampage has put together his numbers against a MUCH tougher level of competition.

Stat highlight: both men are heavy-handed (6.7 knockdowns + knockouts per hour for Bader, and 4.1 for Rampage) but both are also durable. Will be interesting to see how that power matches up.

Putting it all together, the math gives Jackson a 51% chance for the win, but I’m rounding it off and calling it 50/50%.

. . . . .

Ryan Bader

Pick to bet: Ryan Bader (underdog)

The current moneyline on Bader is +206 (= 33% chance of winning, $100 pays $206).

Based on the numbers, I think the odds underestimate Bader’s legitimate chance of winning this bout. I’ll continue to watch the odds and bet on Bader assuming they stay long.

Click for all UFC 144 breakdowns.

. . . . .

Understanding the Stats:

Data only includes fights from the last 5 years with stats in the Fight Metric database. That means fights in smaller organizations are ignored.

Results are color-coded by how the fighter compares to all other fighters in the database: the darker the green the better, the darker the red the worse. High numbers are good in the fighter’s column, low numbers are good in the fighter’s opponents column.

The “probability of win” (top of stats) is based on analysis of the stats that matter the most in determining who wins fights, and is the most important thing I look at when deciding how to wager on a fight (read more).

The “level of competition” (bottom of stats) captures how difficult the fighter’s opponents have been by showing the total 5-year W/L record of opponents at the time they fought. It’s easy to rack up sexy stats when you fight goofs (and vice-versa) so stats should be viewed with the level of competition in mind (read more).

Click to read more FAQs about understanding these stats.

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Get more great MMA news and analysis over at Breakdown Fights.