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MMA Analysis: Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgensen at UFC 143

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Below we’ve measured each fighter’s performance in major fights over the last 5 years and each fighter’s probability of winning this match up based on (uber nerdy) statistical analysis.

After the stats, I’ll talk about any wagers I’ll be making.

Click for all UFC 143 breakdowns.

[Ed. Note: Make sure to check out all of Mike the Geek's other MMA analysis over at Breakdown Fights]

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Betting Strategy:

Pick to win: Renan Barao by Decision

Neither fighter has a strong statistical edge in striking. Jorgensen has been a bit more heavy-handed (3.1 knockdowns + knockouts per hour, vs 1.7 for Barao). Barao has done a better job limiting strikes from opponents.

Barao has the statistical edge in grappling. Offensively and defensively, he is well above average in terms of takedowns, passes and submissions.

Other factor(s): Barao will have a 4″ reach advantage (which is significant, advantage Barao).

Putting it all together, the math gives Barao the strong edge for the win (66%).

. . . . .

Pick to bet: neither fighter (yet)

The current moneyline on Barao is -255 (= 72% chance of winning, $100 pays $39).

Barao’s chances of winning this bout are already baked in to the odds. I’ll wager on Barao if he gets to -180, otherwise I’ll be sitting on the sidelines for this one.

Click for all UFC 143 breakdowns.

. . . . .

Understanding the Stats:

Data only includes fights from the last 5 years with stats in the Fight Metric database. That means fights in smaller organizations are ignored.

Results are color-coded by how the fighter compares to all other fighters in the database: the darker the green the better, the darker the red the worse. High numbers are good in the fighter’s column, low numbers are good in the fighter’s opponents column.

The “probability of win” (top of stats) is based on analysis of the stats that matter the most in determining who wins fights, and is the most important thing I look at when deciding how to wager on a fight (read more).

The “level of competition” (bottom of stats) captures how difficult the fighter’s opponents have been by showing the total 5-year W/L record of opponents at the time they fought. It’s easy to rack up sexy stats when you fight goofs (and vice-versa) so stats should be viewed with the level of competition in mind (read more).

Click to read more FAQs about understanding these stats.

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Get more great MMA news and analysis over at Breakdown Fights.