MMA Analysis: Paul Daley vs. Kazuo Misaki

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Below we’ve measured each fighter’s performance in major fights over the last 5 years and each fighter’s probability of winning this match up based on (uber nerdy) statistical analysis.

After the stats, I’ll talk about any wagers I’ll be making.

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[Ed. Note: Get more great stuff over at Breakdown Fights]

Betting Strategy:

Paul Daley

Pick to win: Paul Daley by KO/TKO

Statistically, Daley has the advantage in striking. Both fighters have landed a similar number of strikes, and been about equally efficient and heavy-handed. Daley has delivered 13.4 knockdowns + knockouts per hour and has some of the heaviest hands of any fighter we track. Misaki is close behind with 10.5 KD + KOs per hour.

But Daley has the advantage because Misaki’s chin is questionable – he’s been knocked down or out 14.0 times per hour, which puts him near the bottom of all fighters we track.

Also note that Daley’s stats are based on facing a much tougher level of competition (advantage Daley).

Putting it all together, the math gives the strong edge to Daley for the win (64%).

. . . . .

Pick to bet: likely neither fighter

The current moneyline on Daley is -280 (= 74% chance of winning, $100 pays $36).

Daley’s chances of winning this bout are already baked in to the odds. I’ll wager on Daley if he gets down to about -150 (which I don’t expect him to), otherwise I’ll be sitting on the sidelines for this one.

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Mike the Geek

Understanding the Stats:

Data only includes fights from the last 5 years with stats in the Fight Metric database. That means fights in smaller organizations are ignored.

Results are color-coded by how the fighter compares to other fighters in the database: the darker the green the better, the darker the red the worse. High numbers are good in the fighter’s column, low numbers are good in the fighter’s opponents column.

The “probability of win” (top of stats) is based on analysis of the stats that matter the most in determining who wins fights, and is the most important thing I look at when deciding how to wager on a fight (read more).

The “level of competition” (bottom of stats) captures how difficult the fighter’s opponents have been by showing the total 5-year W/L record of opponents at the time they fought. It’s easy to rack up sexy stats when you fight goofs (and vice-versa) so stats should be viewed with the level of competition in mind (read more).

Click to read more FAQs about understanding these stats.

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Get more great MMA news and analysis over at Breakdown Fights.