MMA Analysis: Evan Dunham vs. Nik Lentz at UFC on Fox 2

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Below we’ve measured each fighter’s performance in major fights over the last 5 years and each fighter’s probability of winning this match up based on (uber nerdy) statistical analysis.

After the stats, I’ll talk about any wagers I’ll be making. Click for all UFC on Fox 2 breakdowns.

[Ed. Note: Make sure to check out all of Mike the Geek's other MMA analysis over at Breakdown Fights]

Betting Strategy:

Pick to win: Evan Dunham by Decision

The statistical advantage in striking goes to Dunham. Lentz has been more efficient landing strikes (46% to 33%) but Dunham has been more efficient defending (29% vs 45%) and landed more often (225 vs 174 per hour).

The advantage in grappling goes to Lentz. Example: he’s landed twice as many takedowns per hour as Dunham. Lentz’s takedown defense hasn’t been stellar, but I don’t expect Dunham to try to take this match to the ground, so it’s a non-issue.

Other factors: Dunham will have a 2″ reach advantage, but that is insignificant. Dunham fights southpaw and Lentz orthodox (advantage Dunham).

Putting it all together, the math gives the strong edge to Dunham for the win (68%).

. . . . .

Pick to bet: neither fighter

The current moneyline on Dunham is -298 (= 75% chance of winning, $100 pays $34).

Dunham’s chances of winning this bout are already baked in to the odds. I’ll wager on Dunham if the the odds get down to -170 (which I don’t expect them to) otherwise I’ll be sitting on the sidelines for this one.

Click for all UFC on Fox 2 breakdowns.

. . . . .

Understanding the Stats:

Data only includes fights from the last 5 years with stats in the Fight Metric database. That means fights in smaller organizations are ignored.

Results are color-coded by how the fighter compares to all other fighters in the database: the darker the green the better, the darker the red the worse. High numbers are good in the fighter’s column, low numbers are good in the fighter’s opponents column.

The “probability of win” (top of stats) is based on analysis of the stats that matter the most in determining who wins fights, and is the most important thing I look at when deciding how to wager on a fight (read more).

The “level of competition” (bottom of stats) captures how difficult the fighter’s opponents have been by showing the total 5-year W/L record of opponents at the time they fought. It’s easy to rack up sexy stats when you fight goofs (and vice-versa) so stats should be viewed with the level of competition in mind (read more).

Click to read more FAQs about understanding these stats.

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Get more great MMA news and analysis over at Breakdown Fights.