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MMA Analysis: Edson Barboza vs. Terry Etim at UFC 142

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Below we’ve measured each fighter’s performance in major fights over the last 5 years and each fighter’s probability of winning this match up based on (uber nerdy) statistical analysis.

After the stats, I’ll talk about any wagers I’ll be making.

[Ed. Note: Make sure to check out all of Mike the Geek's other MMA analysis over at Breakdown Fights]

Betting Strategy:

Pick to win: Edson Barboza

Statistically, Barboza has a slight advantage over Etim in striking. Barboza lands more strikes and has shown himself to be heavier-handed (6.0 knockdowns + knockouts per hour, versus 2.3 for Etim).

But Barboza gets the (big) nod for the win in this match up based on grappling. Barboza’s grappling hasn’t been off the charts, but Etim’s has been abysmal (ex. allowing 13.7 takedowns per hour and only defending 40% of takedown attempts).

Putting it all together, the math gives Barboza the strong edge to win (70%).

. . . . .

Pick to bet: neither fighter (yet)

The current moneyline on Barboza is -259 (= 72% chance of winning, $100 pays $39).

Barboza’s chance of winning this fight is already “baked in” to the odds here. If the odds come down a little (to say, -230) I’ll wager on Barboza, otherwise I’ll be sitting on the sidelines for this one.

. . . . .

Understanding the Stats:

Data only includes fights from the last 5 years with stats in the Fight Metric database. That means fights in smaller organizations are ignored.

Results are color-coded by how the fighter compares to all other fighters in the database: the darker the green the better, the darker the red the worse. High numbers are good in the fighter’s column, low numbers are good in the fighter’s opponents column.

The “probability of win” (top of stats) is based on analysis of the stats that matter the most in determining who wins fights, and is the most important thing I look at when deciding how to wager on a fight (read more).

The “level of competition” (bottom of stats) captures how difficult the fighter’s opponents have been by showing the total 5-year W/L record of opponents at the time they fought. It’s easy to rack up sexy stats when you fight goofs (and vice-versa) so stats should be viewed with the level of competition in mind (read more).

Click to read more FAQs about understanding these stats.

Mike the Geek

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