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MMA Analysis: Duane Ludwig vs. Josh Neer at UFC on FX

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Below we’ve measured each fighter’s performance in major fights over the last 5 years and each fighter’s probability of winning this match up based on (uber nerdy) statistical analysis.

After the stats, I’ll talk about any wagers I’ll be making.

Click for all UFX on FX breakdowns.

[Ed. Note: Make sure to check out all of Mike the Geek's other MMA analysis over at Breakdown Fights]

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Betting Strategy:

Pick to win: Duane Ludwig by Decision

Statistically this is a super close match up.

Both fighters are quality strikers, but neither has a significant edge on the feet. Ludwig lands more strikes. Neer does a better job limiting opponents’ strikes and is the more efficient striker. Neither fighter is particularly heavy-handed (they’ve delivered ZERO knockdowns + knockouts in the last 5 years) (*).

* Yes, Ludwig has the UFC record for the fastest knockout, but that happened more than 5 years ago, so it’s not included in these stats.

Both fighters score poorly on all grappling stats we track, but equally poorly, so again neither has a significant advantage.

Other factors: Neer has faced slightly tougher opponents (advantage Neer). Neer has a 2.5″ reach advantage, but that is insignificant.

Putting it all together, the math gives a super small edge to Ludwig for the win (52%).

. . . . .

Pick to bet: neither fighter (yet).

The current moneyline on Ludwig is -116 (= 54% chance of winning, $100 pays $86).

That’s too close to my own prediction to justify a wager, but I will bet on Ludwig if the odds get to even.

Click for all UFX on FX breakdowns.

. . . . .

Understanding the Stats:

Data only includes fights from the last 5 years with stats in the Fight Metric database. That means fights in smaller organizations are ignored.

Results are color-coded by how the fighter compares to all other fighters in the database: the darker the green the better, the darker the red the worse. High numbers are good in the fighter’s column, low numbers are good in the fighter’s opponents column.

The “probability of win” (top of stats) is based on analysis of the stats that matter the most in determining who wins fights, and is the most important thing I look at when deciding how to wager on a fight (read more).

The “level of competition” (bottom of stats) captures how difficult the fighter’s opponents have been by showing the total 5-year W/L record of opponents at the time they fought. It’s easy to rack up sexy stats when you fight goofs (and vice-versa) so stats should be viewed with the level of competition in mind (read more).

Click to read more FAQs about understanding these stats.

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Get more great MMA news and analysis over at Breakdown Fights.