MMA Analysis: Charlie Brenneman vs Daniel Roberts at UFC on FX

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Below we’ve measured each fighter’s performance in major fights over the last 5 years and each fighter’s probability of winning this match up based on (uber nerdy) statistical analysis.

After the stats, I’ll talk about any wagers I’ll be making.

Click for all UFX on FX breakdowns.

[Ed. Note: Make sure to check out all of Mike the Geek's other MMA analysis over at Breakdown Fights]

Betting Strategy:

Pick to win: Charlie Brenneman by Decision

Brenneman has the statistical advantage in striking. He’s landed more often and been more efficient (landing 54% of strikes compared to just 20% for Roberts). Neither fighter is heavy-handed (neither has delivered a single knockdown or knockout in the last 5 years).

Brenneman also has the advantage in grappling, scoring in the top 10% of all fighters we track for both takedowns and passes.

Other factors: Roberts will have a 4″ reach advantage (which is significant, advantage Roberts). Roberts fights southpaw and Brenneman orthodox (advantage Roberts).

Putting it all together, the math gives Brenneman the strong edge for the win (77%).

. . . . .

Pick to bet: Charlie Brenneman

The current moneyline on Brenneman is -280 (= 74% chance of winning, $100 pays $36).

I usually don’t play favorites when the odds are this long, but I think Brenneman is a solid bet at these odds.

Click for all UFX on FX breakdowns.

. . . . .

Understanding the Stats:

Data only includes fights from the last 5 years with stats in the Fight Metric database. That means fights in smaller organizations are ignored.

Results are color-coded by how the fighter compares to all other fighters in the database: the darker the green the better, the darker the red the worse. High numbers are good in the fighter’s column, low numbers are good in the fighter’s opponents column.

The “probability of win” (top of stats) is based on analysis of the stats that matter the most in determining who wins fights, and is the most important thing I look at when deciding how to wager on a fight (read more).

The “level of competition” (bottom of stats) captures how difficult the fighter’s opponents have been by showing the total 5-year W/L record of opponents at the time they fought. It’s easy to rack up sexy stats when you fight goofs (and vice-versa) so stats should be viewed with the level of competition in mind (read more).

Click to read more FAQs about understanding these stats.

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Get more great MMA news and analysis over at Breakdown Fights.