MMA Analysis: Aaron Rosa vs. James Te-Huna at UFC on FX 2

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Below we’ve measured each fighter’s performance in major fights over the last 5 years and each fighter’s probability of winning this match up based on (uber nerdy) statistical analysis.

After the stats, I’ll talk about any wagers I’ll be making.

Click for all UFC on FX 2 breakdowns.

[Ed. Note: Get more great stuff over at Breakdown Fights]

Betting Strategy:

James Te-Huna

Pick to win: James Te-Huna by KO/TKO

Statistically, Te-Huna has the advantage in striking. Rosa has had a higher work rate, landing 258 strikes per hour versus 106 for Te-Huna, but Te-Huna has done a much better job limiting strikes from opponents and has been much heavier-handed. Te-Huna has delivered a huge 9.6 knockdowns + knockouts per hour, versus zero for Rosa.

By default, Te-Huna also has the advantage in grappling. Rosa has shown (literally) no grappling offense.

Other factor(s): Rosa will have a 2″ reach advantage, but that is insignificant.

Putting it all together, the math gives Te-Huna the strong edge for the fight (71%).

. . . . .

Pick to bet: possibly James Te-Huna

The current moneyline on Te-Huna is -300 (= 75% chance of winning, $100 pays $33).

Based on the numbers, I think the line is spot on. I’ll continue to watch the odds and wager on Te-Huna at -300 or better.

Click for all UFC on FX 2 breakdowns.

Mike the Geek

Understanding the Stats:

Data only includes fights from the last 5 years with stats in the Fight Metric database. That means fights in smaller organizations are ignored.

Results are color-coded by how the fighter compares to other fighters in the database: the darker the green the better, the darker the red the worse. High numbers are good in the fighter’s column, low numbers are good in the fighter’s opponents column.

The “probability of win” (top of stats) is based on analysis of the stats that matter the most in determining who wins fights, and is the most important thing I look at when deciding how to wager on a fight (read more).

The “level of competition” (bottom of stats) captures how difficult the fighter’s opponents have been by showing the total 5-year W/L record of opponents at the time they fought. It’s easy to rack up sexy stats when you fight goofs (and vice-versa) so stats should be viewed with the level of competition in mind (read more).

Click to read more FAQs about understanding these stats.

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Get more great MMA news and analysis over at Breakdown Fights.