Over the past few weeks there has been a lot of hype coming out of Manny Pacquiao’s camp regarding how well prepared he is for his upcoming fight. By comparison, Juan Manuel Marquez’s team has been relatively silent about how their guy’s training has gone. When you couple the mystery surrounding his preparation with Marquez having never actually beat his arch rival up to this point, you would think that the odds for Dec. 8’s showdown would heavily favor Pacquiao.
According to Bovada, Pacquiao is -300 and Marquez is +230. A little over a month ago, Pacquiao was listed at -350 and Marquez was +280. Two months ago, Pacquiao was -400 and Marquez was +300. And just for comparison’s sake, for their third showdown last November, Pacquiao was -700 and Marquez was +500.
What does all of that tell us regarding gambler confidence in Pacquiao’s ability to pull out a third consecutive victory over Marquez? A whole lot of nothing. Gambling odds, much like stock prices, move arbitrarily these days. Non-events shift lines; periods which feature little to no betting somehow lead to odds being altered ever so slightly.
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The most interesting time to observe odds for this bout will be the next two weeks. People begin to bet heavily on big events like this one to two weeks beforehand. Shifts that occur from this point onward will be at least partially reflect gambler confidence in one fighter or the other.
One other interesting note: the over/under on rounds is set at 10.5. If Pacquiao wins this match via knockout, that will happen before the 11th round. If it goes 11 or more rounds, this match is going to end with a decision. Book it.