Politics

NBC Poll: Clinton Jumps Out To Biggest Lead Yet

| by Robert Fowler

New polling indicates that Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton is widening her strong lead over GOP nominee Donald Trump in national support. That data show that the business mogul's support among key Republican voter blocs is being chipped away.

On August 9, new results of the NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll found Clinton to be leading Trump by 51 to 41 percent in a head-to-head matchup. This is her largest lead yet since the polling group began conducting its survey for the 2016 presidential election cycle, NBC News reports.

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In the previous week, Clinton led Trump by 8 percentage points. This has now widened to a 10-point advantage, indicating that either the convention bounce Clinton enjoyed after the Democratic National Convention has had unusual staying power or that Trump’s support is slipping.

When the race was widened to all four likely presidential candidates, 44 percent of respondents supported Clinton compared to Trump’s 38 percent. Meanwhile, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson garnered 10 percent support while Green Party candidate Jill Stein took in 4 percent.

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The survey data found that Trump’s support among reliable Republican voter groups is slipping. While the business mogul led Clinton with men by 16 points just two weeks ago, that edge has now narrowed to only 5 points.

While Trump’s support among men has dropped, Clinton’s support among women has continued to rise. Among women, the former Secretary of State’s now has a 24-point advantage over Trump, up 10 points from just two weeks ago.

While Trump retains his strong lead among white men with a 23-point advantage, Clinton has overtaken him among voters without a college degree, who now support her by a 4-point margin. In early July, that same voting block supported Trump by a 9-point margin, suggesting a dramatic shift.

Clinton has had a steady and strong lead in the polls over the past week. Aggregating the last 11 presidential polls going back to July 31, Real Clear Politics found that Clinton currently leads Trump nationwide by an average of 7.9 percentage points.

FiveThirtyEight, a polling analysis website headed by statistician Nate Silver, projects Clinton to have a very strong likelihood of winning the November election. As of August 9, the website gives Clinton an 87.6 percent chance of winning and Trump only a 12.3 percent chance.

According to its model of the electoral map, FiveThirtyEight currently projects Clinton to win the general election with 364.9 electoral votes compared to Trump’s 172.6 electoral votes.

While Trump currently has the challenge of turning his sagging poll numbers around within the next three months, a majority of his supporters appear to have already committed to the idea that a Clinton win would be illegitimate.

On August 9, a new Public Policy Polling survey found that among North Carolina Trump supporters, 69 percent believe that if Clinton wins in November, it will be because the election had been rigged, Business Insider reports. Only 16 percent agreed that it would have been because she garnered more votes than Mr. Trump.

Sources: Business InsiderFiveThirtyEightNBC News, Real Clear Politics / Photo credit: Gage Skidmore/Flickr