Nate Silver: Clinton Has 80 Percent Shot At Presidency

| by Nik Bonopartis
Nate SilverNate Silver

Hillary Clinton has an almost 80 percent chance to win the general election, according to a well-known statistician.

Nate Silver, formerly of The New York Times and currently of ESPN's FiveThirtyEight, told ABC's "Good Morning America" that he's giving the former secretary of state a 79 percent shot at the White House, while pegging Republican rival Donald Trump's chances at 20 percent.

"Here's how to think about it: We're at halftime of the election right now," Silver told "Good Morning America's" George Stephanopoulos, who was former President Bill Clinton's communications director. "And she's taking a 7-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime. There's a lot of football left to be played. She's ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll."

The last presidential candidate to blow a lead that large so close to November was Democrat Michael Dukakis, Silver said. Dukakis lost the 1988 presidential campaign to President George H.W. Bush, who served one term before losing to Bill Clinton.

This isn't the first time Silver has weighted Trump's chances. In 2015, after the businessman launched his campaign, Silver and FiveThirtyEight gave Trump just a 5 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination.

Even late into the campaign, Silver was telling his readers to "relax," assuring them that Trump would not become the Republican nominee. He later appeared on networks like CNN, and wrote a self-critical piece on his own website, for "acting like a pundit" and getting the Trump odds wrong.

Silver said he misinterpreted the data, but also said Trump is a unique political figure that hasn't been bound by the rules of conventional campaigning.

"This is one of the crazier things we've seen in American politics for a long time," Silver told CNN in May.

Sources: ABC News, CNN, FiveThirtyEight / Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons

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