Analysis: Clinton Has 95 Percent Chance of Election Win

| by Robert Fowler

The latest forecast of the 2016 presidential election predicts an overwhelming edge for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

On Aug. 19, the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project updated its projection of the electoral map in November.

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Analyzing which presidential candidate is more likely to win each state, the project gives Clinton a 95 percent chance of winning The White House, according to Reuters.

States of the Nation collects data from weekly online polls, surveying as many as 16,000 likely voters to determine regional preferences and demographic turnout.

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The project estimates Clinton will win 45 percent of the popular vote and 268 electoral votes, just two electoral votes shy of hitting the 270 threshold necessary to win the presidency.

Meanwhile, Trump is predicted to win 39 percent of the popular vote, collecting 179 electoral votes, almost 100 electoral votes shy of what he would need to win.

The project predicts overall voter turnout to be roughly 60 percent in November. It estimates 69 percent of American white men, 59 percent of African women and 43 percent of racial minorities will cast their ballot.

If Millennial voters were to largely stay home, States of the Nation still gives Clinton a 95 percent chance of winning, estimating she would collect 90 more electoral votes than Trump.

The project also found that even if white male voters below the poverty line turned out to vote in record numbers, then Clinton would still have a 95 percent chance of winning.

The only scenario where Trump could win is if the majority of Democratic voters stay home while there is a surge among Republican voters.

Clinton has consistently led Trump in national polls since the party conventions in July. Aggregating the last seven national polls released since Aug. 4, Real Clear Politics found Clinton leads Trump by an average of six percentage points.

The Democratic nominee’s formidable electoral edge has been seconded by FiveThirtyEight, the election forecast group founded by statistician Nate Silver, who gained fame after accurately predicting the results of 49 out of 50 states in the 2012 presidential election.

After aggregating national and statewide polling, FiveThirtyEight gives Clinton an 83.5 percent chance of winning, and Trump a 16.5 percent chance. Its state model predicts Clinton to collect 346 electoral votes 191 electoral votes for Trump.

Sources: FiveThirtyEight, Real Clear PoliticsReuters / Photo Credit: Ida Mae Astute/Disney via Flickr

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