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Trump's Support Remains High In 2018 Battlegrounds

| by Robert Fowler

New polling indicates that President Donald Trump remains solidly popular in crucial districts that will serve as battlegrounds in the upcoming 2018 midterm elections. The data indicates that while Trump has grown increasingly unpopular nationwide, Democrats could face an uphill climb to win the districts their party needs to regain control of the House in 2018.

On Jan. 22, the Gallup daily tracking poll found that 45 percent of national adults approved of Trump's job performance at the start of his presidency while 45 percent disapproved. By Aug. 6, Gallup found that only 38 percent of national adults approved of Trump's job performance while 57 percent disapproved.

That data indicated that Trump's national approval steadily declined throughout his first six months in office, which would be encouraging news for any opposition party. Meanwhile, another survey indicated that Trump remains strong in districts that Democrats hope to win in 2018, which could prevent them from retaking back power in Congress.

On Aug. 4, a Vox/SurveyMonkey poll found that Trump's support had dipped less in the 50 most competitive districts in the country while his approval rating took a hit in the remaining 385 voting districts across the nation, Vox reports.

There are 100 districts that are considered potential battlegrounds for the upcoming 2018 midterm elections. While the survey found that Trump's support was waning in the 50 Democratic-leaning swing districts, he remained popular in the 50 Republican-leaning swing districts.

The survey found that GOP support for Trump in solidly Democratic districts had dropped from 86 percent in April to 82 percent in July. GOP approval for the president in Democratic-leaning swing districts had also slipped from 89 percent in April to 84 percent in July.

Meanwhile, GOP support for Trump in Republican-leaning swing districts had only dropped from 91 percent in April to 89 percent in July. This has resulted in Trump maintaining a 47 percent approval rating in half of the swing districts that will help decide the makeup of Congress in 2018.

The survey concluded that Trump's support was slipping across all demographics except for Republicans in GOP-leaning battlegrounds, which would be enough to deny Democrats a House majority in 2018. If the Democratic Party wanted to regain control of the House, Trump's Republican support in these 50 districts would have to drastically shrink within a year.

While the data indicates that Trump remains strong in crucial battleground districts, other polling signals that his support is slipping in overall swing states.

On Aug. 5, a Firehouse/Optimus survey found that Trump's support had waned among likely midterm voters in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In April, the poll found that 44.5 percent of respondents in these states were favorable toward Trump while 42.5 percent were unfavorable. By August, the poll found that only 42 percent of respondents were favorable toward the president while 51 percent were unfavorable, according to Firehouse Strategies

"Just 6 months in officeTrump is getting into dangerously low territory in key swing states," Firehouse Strategies partner Alex Conant told Axios.

Conant added: "Trump cannot take continued GOP support for granted in swing states."

Sources: Axios, Firehouse Strategies, GallupVox / Featured Image: Gage Skidmore/Flickr / Embedded Images: Gage Skidmore/Flickr (2)

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