SEC

SEC Championship Analysis: Auburn vs. South Carolina

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The combined against the spread records for Auburn and South Carolina is only 10-11 this season, but the game forecast is something you should pay attention to. With Auburn vs. South Carolina, the Tigers are only winning 51 percent of simulations in the SEC Championship Game, which is far too low for a match-up of an undefeated teams vs. a three-loss team.

The public has a love affair with Heisman candidate Cam Newton and Auburn is only one game away from playing in the BCS Title Game. Auburn has made a habit out of late game comebacks and and they have been on the right side of eight coin flips this season. You don’t need to be a statistician to see that Auburn might be living on borrowed time. I am not ready to say Auburn will lose Saturday in Atlanta, but 4.5 points is far to many points to give a team that was beating you in the fourth quarter during their previous match-up.

South Carolina had four turnovers when they played Auburn earlier this year which is a deviation from the norm, even if Stephen Garcia is the quarterback. The Gamecocks have the make up to keep this game very close, if not pull off the upset all together. USC have a tremendous running game centered around Marcus Lattimore and big tall wide receivers that can be effective in the 3rd and manageable situations that South Carolina will face.

Turnovers are the reason this game will be close and why I like South Carolina. Auburn won the turnover battle in the first game, but during the first three quarters of that game, South Carolina had fewer turnovers and a lead on the scoreboard. I do not think South Carolina will be cavalier with the ball which is important because they win 65 percent of simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers.

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AccuScore says the fair betting line is Auburn –1, so I will take the extra 3.5 points and take South Carolina +4.5 in the SEC Championship Game.