Politics

Trump Will Lose Texas

| by Mark Jones
Texas' state capitol building in AustinTexas' state capitol building in Austin

Donald Trump likely will lose to Hillary Clinton in Texas this November.

According to August polls released by Public Policy Polling, the GOP candidate currently holds a mere six-point lead over Clinton in a state that traditionally votes conservatively.

270 to Win reports that Texas has not given its electoral college votes to a Democratic candidate since 1976. In 2012, President Barack Obama defeated Republican opponent Mitt Romney significantly. In Texas, however, Romney won by 16 points.  

On June 27, The Texas Politics Project poll at the University of Texas at Austin recorded Trump leading Clinton by eight points. In less than two months, Trump’s lead over Clinton has dropped two points. Who knows how far it could drop by the time November comes.

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Trump’s popularity among voters is declining everywhere in the United States. According to NBC News, 50 percent of voters said that they would vote for Hillary Clinton if the election fell between Aug. 8 and Aug. 14, and 41 percent of respondents said that they would vote for Trump.

Just one month earlier, respondents to the same poll reported a more even split in support for Trump and Clinton. Both high-profile candidates received between 45 and 49 percent of respondents’ support.

Nowhere is Clinton’s dramatic increase in popularity more surprising to Americans than the Lone Star state. Many factors, however, point to a logical transition toward support for a left-leaning candidate.

Texas has a growing Hispanic population. In 2012, the Pew Research Center reported that Hispanics made up almost 40 percent of Texas’ population. Pew Researchers predict that Hispanics will soon surpass whites as the largest ethnicity in Texas.

While Clinton has led the 2016 election in Hispanic voter support since the beginning, Trump presently finds himself needing to mend relations with Hispanic voters.

According to Politico, the GOP is fervently trying to repair damage caused by anti-immigration rhetoric that plagued so many of Trump’s earlier speeches.

Hispanic voters do not represent the only large demographic of Texans in support of Clinton. Like young people in other parts of the United States, voters under the age of 65 in Texas overwhelmingly prefer the Democratic nominee to Trump.

Public Policy Polling shows that Trump has a 63-33 lead over Clinton among senior citizens in Texas. Among voters under 65, however, Clinton leads Trump 49-45. For voters under 45, the lead becomes even more significant with the Democratic nominee receiving 25 percent more votes.

Texas is following trends present in the rest of the country. If the 2016 election continues to move in this direction, Trump will lose both in Texas and the overall United States. 

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Sources: Public Policy Polling, NBC, Texas Politics Project, Pew Research CenterPolitico, 270 to Win / Photo Credit: Nicolas Henderson/Flickr

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